Conflict in Venezuela: what now? – 05/03/2019

Two restless days – which resulted in four deaths and more political detainees – They plunged Venezuela into the doldrums of stagnation. Juan Guaidó preferred the refuge of the networks to make announcements on Thursday evening. And Nicolás Maduro continued his government program as if nothing had happened. And so now that?

The Lima group to meet foreign ministers at noon in Argentina this Friday during an emergency summit. The country bloc recognizes Juan Guaidó as interim president of Venezuela.

The meeting was convened urgently at the request of Colombia on Tuesday, when the group declared itself "in permanent session" after a videoconference between the Foreign Ministers of Argentina, Brazil , Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama and Paraguay. and Peru.

They will deal with the situation that has been closed since Guaidó launched Tuesday the operation "Libertad", in which he calls for the withdrawal of the armed forces of President Nicolás Maduro to force his resignation, which does not seem to happen.

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The truth is that the opposition and its main support, the United States, they have few options After Guaidó, who chairs the National Assembly, stopped Tuesday in front of a military base and asked the armed forces to overthrow Maduro. The plan failed. Instead, the Venezuelan army chief swore his loyalty to Maduro and four people were killed in clashes between protesters and police after the risky move of the opposition to take control.

General strike without date or doubt

The streets of Caracas regained tranquility Thursday after the violence of two previous days. Guaidó's new plan is go to a general strikefor which no date is known and whose effectiveness is questioned in a country with a broken economy and an exhausted population.

An expert from Venezuela noted that the opposition and Washington are now baduming the difficult task of trace a new exit after ascertaining that only a small contingent of the armed forces had joined Guaidó outside the base, without it being possible to presume that other units had participated in the call to the uprising. .

"You can only play this card once, and now that it has been played it's hard to see what else can be done"said Fernando Cutz, who led until April 28 the US policy for Venezuela in the National Security Council, as well as that of President Barack Obama and Donald Trump.

Mature, under pressure

At the same time, the Maduro government is under tremendous pressure and has to deal with the rejection of a large part of the population as it tries to steer the course of a rotting country. . The fact that Guaidó has not yet been arrested after accusing him of having attempted a coup d'état suggests that it's not safe enough to do it and that he is cautious about any increased diplomatic and economic pressure exerted by the United States and dozens of countries that recognize President Guaidó as legitimate president.

Any attempt to arrest Guaidó would "highly inflammatory"said Eileen Gavin, a Latin American badyst at Verisk Maplecroft, a global risk consulting firm.

"From Maduro's point of view, it could be better discredit Guaidó as a simple annoyance and a puppet from the United States, which would undermine Guaidó's flickering movement and, once again, divide the Venezuelan fractured opposition, "said Gavin.

The government began acting against some after the failure of the rebellion. The highest court in the country ordered the detention of Guaidó's political mentor on Thursday, Leopoldo López, who fled to the embbady of Spain after challenging his house arrest and participating in the attempted coup d'etat. The court also opened an investigation for treason against Edgar Zambrano, vice president of the National Assembly He was also with Guaidó outside the Caracas military base.

Some badysts believe that American accusations that three Venezuelan officials participated in the plot against Maduro will not divide the government, but will bring it closer to him. One of the most important positions of the executive, the Minister of Defense, Vladimir Padrino López, sworn allegiance the leader and said that there were attempts to lure the army to the cause of opposition.

Padrino López warned potential deserters that they had tried to buy them as "mercenaries".

USA, without plan

The United States has imposed sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry and key figures of the Maduro team, who is holding onto power despite the severe economic and humanitarian situation that has forced about 10% of the population to go in the biggest migrant crisis in Latin America.

According to Cutz, if it is likely that the United States hardened their speech in favor of Caracas, they have already used their most powerful weapon: oil sanctions. Your last options include the idea of a military interventionwho has been dragging on for a long time and is unlikely, or focus on another foreign policy priority, he said.

"It sounds more anger than a strategic gesture," he said of the White House's bellicose rhetoric. "If I were a lower-ranking colonel, why would I risk my life sharing secrets with the Americans when they were silent?"

Trump said that, for the moment, the United States was not focusing on a military option.

"And we are doing everything we can without having, you know, the most," said the president in an interview with Fox Business Network on Wednesday. "We have a lot of options open, but when we see what's going on there, it's an incredible catastrophe"

Trump said that Maduro was "hard, but I think he's losing a lot of control."

Source: AP and AFP