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"Prime Minister, why do not you resign?" (Why is the Prime Minister not resigning?) With this scandalous cry, Theresa May received a conservative activist in a partisan act after the disastrous result of the Conservatives in the elections Thursdays in England and Northern Ireland.
This was not an isolated scream. During the slow vote count that continued throughout Friday, MPs, councilors and conservative activists joined May's resignation request. Friday, in the middle of the afternoon, the numbers were already catastrophic. In their worst local elections in decades, the Conservatives lost more than 1,100 councilors and controlled more than 40 municipalities.
It is customary for municipal elections to be an opportunity to vote against the current government, but in this case the symbolism has a much broader dimension. These are the first elections since the government's postponement – March 29 and April 12 – the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU), which is scheduled for October 31. The verdict was a devastating defeat for the conservatives, responsible for almost three years of negotiations with the EU. The big winners were the pro-European parties.
The Liberal Democrats won more than 500 municipal seats, the Greens nearly 200 and the independents more than 300. In contrast, the UKIP, fiercely pro-frexit, has lost a hundred councilors. Among the curiosities of this election, the most remarkable representative of the pro-Brexit conservative Right, Jacob Rees-Mogg, lives from today in a liberal-democratic anti-Brexit municipality.
The main opposition party, Jeremy Corbyn's Labor Party, failed to take advantage of the conservative break-up. The balanced and elusive position of Corbyn, which at the same time admits the British exit from the EU, proposes to maintain the link as much as possible with the European bloc and does not exclude a second referendum. Industrial proBrexit or in pro-European southern regions, but this did not prevent the party from losing a hundred councilors and some nine municipalities.
Corbyn acknowledged that Brexit had been a determining factor in the election. "Of course, we could have done better, that was what we expected.In some cases, the vote was due to local factors.In others, a disagreement with the policy followed by the Brexit: It's clear that Parliament needs to solve this problem, "Corbyn said. The Prime Minister took advantage of the results of the Labor Party to put everyone in the same bag. "I think the message is clear for us and the Labor Party to solve the Brexit theme (…." deliver the Brexit "…)" said May.
In reality, the message is much more diffuse than this "deliver Brexit" simplistic. Conservatives and Labor have lost advisers to pro-European parties who totally reject Brexit and want a new referendum. In post-industrial northern regions like Barnsley, theoretically more pro-Brexit, there was a "tipping" of 17.3% of Labor voters who chose Liberal Democrats, while in the other North Sunderland, the de 13.4%. Elsewhere, the change was less important – between 2% and 7% – but in the same direction. More than the "issue the Brexit" (specify exit) of May, voters seem to have said "get rid of Brexit" (get rid of Brexit, reject it).
In a national projection of these local results, the BBC found that conservatives and workers held 28% of the vote, Liberal Democrats 19% and a diverse group of groups with 25% of the vote. The BBC's chief pollster, Sir John Curtice, said the Brexit threatens the Conservative-Labor alternation of post-war governments. "Bipartisanship is at its weakest since the post-war period and that's why the Brexit Party or the Change UK did not run for these elections," Curtice said.
These two parties – one rabid against the EU, the other pro-European rage – will participate in the European legislative elections on May 23rd. If the British Parliament does not approve an agreement with the EU before that date, the United Kingdom will have to participate in these elections even if the 73 elected deputies must leave their seats on 31 October, the date on which, less in theory, the British will leave the European ship.
The only way to avoid this contradiction is for the Westminster Parliament to agree. The parliamentarians signed three times the agreement reached on 25 November with the EU on 25 November. Now, the Conservatives and the Labor Party have been discussing since early April to come up with a consensus proposal that can get MPs' support. If the negotiations succeed, if the result of the negotiations is approved in the House of Commons before May 23, the British will not participate in the European elections. Otherwise, it will continue in "Alice in Wonderland".
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