The fear of Cristina, the only hope of Macri

Thursday, April 25, the influential British newspaper Financial Times published a shocking headline: "Argentina is on the edge of the abyss". Argentina is on the brink of the abyss, they have translated it. Argentina is on the ledge, they have translated from others. The week that ends has several important news: the strike of Hugo Moyano, the uprising of the Venezuelan opposition, the success of the book "Sincerely" by Cristina Kirchner. However, the most relevant news is that it is a relatively quiet weekend. That is, Argentina has not fallen into the much-dreaded abyss. The story of how this collapse was avoided is very revealing of the functioning of political and economic dynamics during these weeks, the power factors at play and the role that Cristina Kirchner's fear of triumph has far more transcendent Who appears.

The note of Financial Times He remembers another very similar one published last April, at the beginning of the bullfighting that transformed the country. At that time, Forbes issued another call "It's time to flee Argentina." However, the effects of one and the other note, up to now, were different. The FT put Argentina "on the edge of the abyss", while the dollar had reached 47 pesos, Thursday of the previous week. This week ended in a climate of enormous instability with a clear upward trend. The key day was Monday. A few minutes before the opening of the markets, the Central Bank was surprised by a statement that would change everything: it announced that it was preparing to intervene in the currency market, when it deemed it necessary, with the amounts it had decided, in order to stop the dollar. This put an end to the impending race and Argentina is away from the abyss a few steps away.

The statement of the Central Bank was surprising because it contradicts the announcement announced until the exhaustion of the International Monetary Fund, that is to say that it would not allow Argentina to spend reserves to contain the dollar under the ceiling of the band set last October. The IMF has maintained a very rigid position on the issue, among other reasons, because it remembers what had happened in Argentina before the break in convertibility. At that time, the central bank was spending almost all the reserves to deal with the capital flight, without however avoiding the crisis. It was money burned. This experience, during which the Fund's borrowings ended up in the hands of daring private investors, provoked a crisis in the international organization and they promised never to repeat the story again. .

However, last weekend, when Argentina seemed to fall into the abyss, this stiffness disappeared in seconds.

This is not the first time that the government of Mauricio Macri is turning to the staff of the Monetary Fund. In 2018, Macri received an incredible amount of money. Never has a country received so much money from the IMF and will probably never receive it again. Now, he has managed to ensure that the Fund's technicians allow him, against all his tradition and beliefs, to use borrowed dollars to control the exchange rate. It seemed impossible until Monday.

The explanation of why these revolutionary events occurred depends on who tells it. At Casa Rosada, they will say that Macri is a man of confidence in the world and that Argentina benefits from these advantages. But if that happens, why are the capitals going away? Why is country risk so high? Why is the interest rate at these levels and, however, fails to convince anyone? This contrast finds a logic in the definition of the expression "the world". It is not the capital that decides to arrive for productive investments, nor financial. The world is a euphemism for defining the state department. The Monetary Fund would never have made such radical and contrary decisions to their opinion if Argentina was not an important part of the political council of the Southern Cone. The United States is a key player in the fund. Only pressure from the White House can explain Copernic's turnaround this week.

Latin America is mainly governed in recent years by leaders more friends of the United States than those of the past decade. But this sum and this subtraction are different if we consider the most powerful countries. In Mexico, Antonio Lopez Obrador is the governor, probably the most distant president of Washington for many decades. In Venezuela, Maduro. Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil, is a much more confrontational and less successful president than his allies expected. In this context, Macri Argentina is a key ally. The defeat of Macri at the hands of Cristina Kirchner would be another blow to Trump's politics in the region.

Things are never completely linear, but it is difficult not to perceive the electoral component that played in the size of the loans and in the decision to intervene in the foreign exchange market just when the first survey appeared where the former president clearly imposed on the vote.

Cristina's fear That's why Macri still has a weapon to control the dollar, perhaps to reduce inflation, perhaps to reach the elections in a more lenient economic context and, he said, to achieve this , even if it was wrong, his reelection.

This fear, of course, also plays its role within the borders. It is very interesting to see what has happened in opinion polls since the Isonomía investigation where the former president counted nine points against Macri in a vote. Day after day, the numbers matched to place the Preisdente in a competitive position. This is due to several reasons: one of them is that the fear of a sector of independents at the return of the Kirchner caused that quickly skewed by Macri.

This was helped by another factor. Until last week, the former president was a silent candidate. He let Macri cook in the sauce preparing the economic approach of his government. If people forgot it, it was better. The important thing was that they remember the fall of purchasing power, economic instability and lack of future. So, they would choose the best tool to punish him, that is to say for her.

But suddenly, Cristina appeared. The first event was the launch of "Sincerely", whose impressive editorial success brought it to the fore and helped define a key debate for this election campaign. Cristina changed and became a kind of Nelson Mandela, the dreaded South African leader of whites who, when he came to power, was then a prisoner for 25 years instead of revenge, reconciled the country? Or is it always the same, as always, with his tantrums, his desire for revenge, his admiration for totalitarian leaders, his inability to think? Honestly, it's a good title for your book. This is not hypocritical. It's the same as it was then.

Added to this was the unemployment of Moyano, irrelevant to curb the economic but very functional plan for the government, the impossibility of Kirchner to leave Maduro every time Venezuela explodes, the threats of Maximo Kirchner of not pay the debt, strawberry dessert, the proposal to send back all the judges of the country that launched a group of Kirchner intellectuals.

When Kirchnerism unfolds, it does so with all its might. And the government celebrates, like so many other times.

Thus, a week has pbaded during which the fear of Cristina has forced the Fund to accept something unthinkable and to match the investigations.

It is not too much for a government to rely on the rejection generated by its enemy. But that's what there is.

Will he arrive at this moment to defeat him, as it has happened in almost every election since he came to power in 2007?

Many things will happen even before the answer to this question is known.

For a moment, Argentina is a few inches away from the abyss