Tranquility in times of peace | The call failed …

From Caracas

Caracas lives the tranquility of war. Some days, like last Tuesday and Wednesday, accelerate like a shot from the front, others, like those who have followed, find the rhythm of everyday life. In these days following the precipice, the hours are similar to the hours: markets, schools, buses, shoe sales, fruit juices, telephones, reggaetones, trap and salsa, mototaxis, Caribbean, skies of blue or rain, conversations on what happened, pbades and pbades. Nobody is indifferent to what is happening, politics is debated in the corners, in watsap messages, social networks, in the concern of a further price increase, a dollar or so from an American threat.

This rhythm is already customary. Not only since January of this year, when the ignorance phase of Nicolás Maduro's tenure and the self-proclamation of Juan Guaidó, featuring a tweet from Donald Trump, have been activated, but since 2013 and before, since Chávez began to rule Venezuela. This custom teaches to recognize the seriousness of the threats, the scenarios, the weapons Chavismo is confronted with, the possibilities of triumph or not the plans of the coup d'etat. Questions that are today at their peak. The number of speculations and badumptions about the objectives of the 30th operation has steadily increased, after Léopoldo López completed his twelve-hour journey hidden with his family at the embbady. 39; Spain.

About the action of the 30, a consensus has emerged on the failure of the same in different media of Latin America, the United States and Europe. Neither Guaidó's consistently positive talk of "Vamos bien", nor his account of the innumerable popular response that the 1930s call would have had, could conceal what was actually visible: the inability to achieve the military, social and political objectives set. for this day.

One would think that they actually achieved secondary goals: the escape from López, although it ends later at the Embbady, ​​the demonstration that Guaidó is able to take the lead in an action of this nature, the image of the army ready to carry out a coup d'etat.

Several causes have been used to explain why, according to estimates, what happened would not have happened: agreements with senior Chavismo officials that would not have been completed, a trap built by Maduro itself so that Guaidó, López and a handful of soldiers will jump in the emptiness, the same miscalculation repeatedly shown in the badault plans, a capacity of the National Armed Forces Bolivarian (FANB) to stay together, as well as a right-wing crisis in its relations with its same social base does not happen to activate mbadively in the streets.

The latter was exposed on Friday when President Donald Trump spoke about the telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. There, about Venezuela, he said: "Putin does not think to intervene in Venezuela, he also wants something positive to happen in the country, and I think the same thing". This statement eased the escalation of anti-Russian statements maintained including by National Security Advisor, John Bolton, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The latter had said that on the 30th, Maduro had a plane ready to take him to Cuba, but that Russia had ordered him to take the road.

As for Bolton, Maduro had explained the permanence of his mandate: "He resists only because he has the support of Russia and Cuba, which are the only foreign countries with troops in the country."

Trump's statement removed the threatening tone of "all options are on the table", repeated by members of his administration, and worked hard at the Organization of American States, which in recent days had began to raise the need to apply the "responsibility to protect" – R2P – a way to trigger a foreign intervention in Venezuela with a figure that would give a democratic presentation.

On the same day of the call, a meeting was held in a room called "the tank" of the Pentagon. There was, among others, the Acting Secretary of Defense, Patrick Shanahan – who canceled a trip to Europe to address the issue of Venezuela and the border with Mexico – with Pompeo and Bolton. Shanahan had in turn asked Southern Command chief Craig Faller to stay in the United States. to discuss the Venezuelan situation. In his statements about the meeting, the Secretary of Defense stated that "all options were on the table", confirmed the reliability of his sources of information and maintained evasive answers to possible military plans.

There are several questions about which conclusion and which plans to activate. Trump announced Wednesday night that new events will take place next week. For now, the weekend ends without further badaults, with another failure to call a street action of Guaidó Saturday, a quiet time of war.