The "global cavalry" played by Macri

"You have to support the program

Macri

. Argentina needs a market open to the world so that our neighbors can see a better Argentina, "launches a letter sent a few days ago by Horst Paulmann, a Chilean businessman who owns Cencosud (Jumbo), one of the best in the country.It is one of Chile's leading businessmen and compares the local situation to that experienced by his country 30 years ago. The plan for "Chicago boys" implemented under the Augusto Pinochet regime, emphasizes the nearly ten years to start giving results.

Paulmann's remarks – which, a few days later, at his shareholder meeting, refer back to Argentina – are attracting attention at a time when supermarket sales are constantly creeping up. fall. According to Indec, the super have been eight consecutive months without realizing a rebound in sales. In February, the latest available data fell by 12.1% in real terms compared to the same month in 2018.

But just as the government of Mauricio Macri has the merit of having established a support network between key international leaders, such as Donald Trump, he also has a "cavalry" of businessmen – most of them international – who come to help him in his worst. domestic, despite its terrible economic results.

Enrique Cristofani, president of Banco Santander, is part of this front. Although the financial sector is considered the big beneficiary of the model, the reality is that the banker does not provide excellent results to its shareholders. In its report for the first quarter of the year, Santander said that its activity in Argentina was the worst of its portfolio: its profits between January and March (adjusted for devaluation and inflation) fell by 84% compared to the same period of 2018.

Outside, many leaders see Macri as a safe option for Argentina to finally abandon populism. They even aspire to project regional leadership, being that other presidents, such as Jair Bolsonaro, Iván Duque and Andrés Manuel López Obrador, are weakened or do not end up showing their trust in the markets.

In the short term, multinationals – like their national counterparts – have to badume a very high cost due to economic mismanagement and the weight of inheritance inherited from years of mismanagement. In recent days, corporate balance sheets have begun to be published in the first quarter of the year. All highlight the terrible local moment.

Volkswagen's automaker warned that "the economic situation in Argentina has deteriorated dramatically in the face of persistently high inflation" and that has recorded a "dramatic drop" in sales of 41.2%. Coca-Cola, whose volume of sales in the country fell by two figures, has resulted in the company's good results in the rest of Latin America. Even Free Mercado, the government's favorite unicorn, informed Wall Street that she was selling more, but that in dollars, she was earning 8% less than during the same period in 2018.

Multinationals have more support than local manufacturers to solve their long-term vision. This does not remove the fact that they also undergo these profound processes of adjustment. The Loma Negra cement plant, owned by the Brazilian Camargo, plans to announce mbadive layoffs at its plant in Barker, in the province of Buenos Aires. One more than a long list.

The same thing will do in these days the National Avex (ex-Dánica). The company, which has just been acquired by the Cordoban Beltrán group, has announced 40 shutdowns at its Villa Mercedes plant and another 40 at Llavallol. She will present this week a crisis prevention process. Arcor, for its part, has announced the closure of its San Pedro liquor plant due to low demand and excess inventory, and confirmed yesterday the closure of a cannery in Mendoza and the transfer of the operation to San Luis.

Among the nationals, the feeling is that the government does not understand them completely. "They listen and they listen, but they do not dialogue", describes the number one of a camera. The Minister of Production, Dante Sica, let them know that he was planning to reissue sectoral productivity agreements, such as those previously concluded with Vaca Muerta or the automotive industry. But this time, the proposal does not generate much enthusiasm.

Conflict in the door

In the

AFIP

Meanwhile, a new front of conflict with national companies has been opened in recent days. After the nationalization of the AFJP, some companies whose shares became an integral part of ANSES 'badets, such as Banco Macro, interpreted that they could be considered as public companies and that, in accordance with Decree No. 814, they could pay a fee. 17% employer contributions, instead of 21%, as in any private company.

Nowadays, Leandro Cuccioli's governing body requires a lot of Macro. Last December, the latest available data was 8,164 employees, an adjustment that could cost him a few hundred million pesos. He claims the difference in contributions for 2009 until 2018, the year in which the rule was changed. The final account would include interest and a late penalty of more than 30%.

The Macro would be a case study among the companies having used the same criterion. Her request not only motivated tax lawyers to comment on the matter, they did so in accordance with AFIP, but she also sought advice from the Treasury Prosecutor. The president of the Macro, Ezequiel Carballo, asked two weeks ago at the hearing of the lawyer, Bernardo Saravia Frias, to raise the case. This would not have taken effect: the prosecutor would give the reason to AFIP.

IMF, again visiting

As it has been for a year, the official program will once again be dominated by

MFIs

: a new mission arrives today and will stay until next Tuesday. The Fund's bureaucrats with Argentina are very uncomfortable. After all, because of the political pressure (of Trump), they were forced to validate the use of reserves to stop the exchange rate, which they had denied since last year. They are not supposed to meet, as during the previous trip, representatives of the opposition. Two personalities, such as Pichetto and Lavagna, will be at the beginning of the week at Vaca Muerta.

It is also ruled out that the IMF bureaucrats support the government that uses the IMF's money to buy back bonds and as a result investors panic about a default. "Some prefer to continue to speculate on the subject, believing that it is the most logical thing to do, they lose the fact that, beyond logic, we have to finance it," admits a Treasury source. "The IMF has never given money to anyone to buy bonds from private companies, but at most, if someone else put them, that could allow them to do it, "he said.

For the moment, there do not seem to be too many altruistic banks, even if the Treasury does not stop questioning them. Trump may have violated IMF regulations to help Macri in his electoral career, but the private cavalry supporting the government must also respond to its shareholders.