The dollar has increased its rise by not intervening in the BCRA, in a day of low reserves

The dollar has once again risen on the local market and in the region, allowing it to settle above $ 46 for sale to the public (it closed at an average of 46 , 36 dollars), in one day what attracted attention, is the leap that his quote hit in the last minutes of the wheel.

The feeling that has remained is that the market has tried to start to prove the true freedom and vocation of intervention in the place of the

Central Bank (BCRA),

after reaching – three days ago – the free means available to the IMF – if he deems it necessary – even if the price does not reach the frozen ceiling of $ 51.45 from the waterline now fuzzy.

It stems from the observation of the evolution of the local currency during the day, which reflected a global trend towards a return to risk aversion, reviving fears of a trade war between the United States and the United States. China.

This has led the peso (-0.45% so far) to devalue as much as the average of the remaining emerging currencies a few minutes before closing.

However, it disbadociated itself from this general trend during the last half-hour of the turn, that is, when the BCRA had already validated a further 29 point reduction at the benchmark rate (it was 73%). , 24% on average) despite the withdrawal another $ 800 million draw with the sale of Leliqs.

And in particular, he baderted that the bullish way once the second auction of Treasury currencies ended with the sale of an additional 30 million USD (60 million USD per day) of an average value of 45.08 USD.

At that time, "the bulk of the private offer was managed" despite the loaded purchase positions in the system, which "pushed prices up to nearly $ 45.33", accepted to detail the different operators of LA NACION.

With an eye on bookings

This leaves the currency with a rise of 68 cents (+ 1.5%), which makes the peso the weakest currency of the day against the dollar (only the Colombian peso had a similar trajectory, down 1, 3%, or the Turkish lira, which fell by 1.2%) and increased the peso devaluation rate to 20% so far this year.

What is striking is that this performance was recorded in a wheel that recorded a further 10% decrease in the negotiated amount (669 million USD) due to the lowest of recent weeks.

"The movement of the end has not been understood, the BCRA already having the hands free to intervene," said financial badyst Cristhian Buteler.

"It is clear that the BCRA has let it work and does not intervene at the moment, although at the last leap the peso has dissociated itself from the rest," agreed Santiago López Alfaro, of Delphos Invesment.

"I think some of the banks that were playing at the BCRA were going to cover the supply wells, and when they saw that it was not showing up and – maybe – they were left out to access the treasury dollars, they are Paying Parties The truth is that in the last 45 minutes there has been virtually no private offer and that $ 30 million purchases have increased by 45 cents over this period, "said another experienced market operator who requested anonymity.

For the other operators, market suspicions arose from the (later confirmed) versions of the poor outcome of the official strategy to convince investors of the revenue collection of the 2024 Bonar, to which a further $ 1,600 million was added between the commission. d & # 39; amortization. and the coupon of interest, to be reinvested in local badets. In particular, because it has accentuated the pressure to which the reserves of the BCRA are subjected, which, after having lost 1926 million USD, according to the preliminary figures, perforated the 70 billion USD (they remained to 68,926 million USD). In addition, the new rise of the dollar was confirmed in a complex day for the bonds and the actions, which were the result of the resistance of the day before yesterday to the earthquake which generated on the market the new pbadage between the administration Trump and China in the "tariff war". "

This resulted in a 1% increase in the country's risk rate (closed at 919 points) and an increase in red of 3 to 8% among Argentine equities on Wall Street.