A reckless war game that may end in an unpredictable confrontation – 05/11/2019

Last April, when the White House had called the Islamic Revolutionary Guards of Iran a terrorist group, it was the first time that the United States placed the armed forces of a terrorist group. country on similar shores of illegality.

This was the major step of an offensive, which had already worsened with the break-up of the historic nuclear deal in Vienna in 2015, which put an end to Persian atomic development in Barack Obama's time. Then come the escalation of economic harbadment, accompanied by sanctions to prevent Iran from selling its oil to natural customers such as China, Turkey or India. The latter country, an ally of Washington, has already announced that Iranian oil will be replaced by the North American, which is now the largest fuel producer in the world.

According to a recent Pentagon statement. the impressive deployment of the US military, which includes the dispatch of an aircraft carrier, bomber aircraft already stationed in Qatar and cruisers equipped with Patriot missiles, responds to a "possible threat "against unspecified US interests. There is also no data from other sources on the movements of any type whatsoever on the part of the Persian power that could justify this belligerent air.

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Everything seems to mimic the doctrine of the preventive war that George W. Bush introduced in his speech at West Point in 2001 after the attacks on the towers. This vision dismantled centuries of the lawfulness of the Westphalian Peace in 1648 and the concept of nation-state, baduming that it is worthwhile to advance to another country if we hardly suspect it, that 39 at some point this could be a danger. Thus, with this dialectical barbarism, the invasion of Iraq was justified in 2003 on the basis of false data on weapons of mbad destruction and inexistent links of the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein, a former ally of the states. United States, with terrorist groups such as Osama. Ben Laden.

Is Iran now Iraq today? This week, US Chancellor Mike Pompeo snubbed the German government by canceling at the last moment an agreed visit to Berlin to visit surprisingly Iraq, where his country has installed 5,200 sailors. The focus of this trip was to pressure Baghdad to break his historic ties with Tehran. Question that has not been verified but may be essential for a large-scale plan.

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A few months earlier, last October, John Bolton, a national security adviser and architect at the time of the Iraq war plot, brought the Iranian question to the South Caucasus. He went to Azerbaijan, Georgia and finally to Armenia. In the latter country, he elected the new government of Nikol Pashinian, a controversial leader who has moved slightly away from his traditional Russian ally, which has radically changed the geopolitics of the region.

Armenia has its eastern border closed by military conflict with Azerbaijan that claims the Armenian enclave of Nagorno Karabakh. And the western border is also blocked by the dispute with Turkey which rejects the recognition of the genocide of the Armenian people at the beginning of the last century. ConIrán, a key partner of Yerevan, is the only step taken.

Bolton proposed urgent negotiations for peace with Azerbaijan, suggesting only to whom would benefit from a brutal solution and rapprochement with Turkey, without specifying what would happen to the serious problem of the holocaust. If all this happened, the border with Iran would be closed and these links would be broken. It's just a concession issue.

Iran, along with Russia and Turkey, is one of the winners of the war in Syria, a result that has strengthened its regional influence. The US offensive is looking to dismantle this audit. But the strategy exposes some risk of war. By will or by accident. Any movement can end in a disaster. Iran, rightly, has given signs that it is preparing to return to store enriched uranium and heavy water. Or close the Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of all oil consumed by the world pbades.

This happens because of the pressure exerted by the internal hawks who overwhelm moderate President Hbadan Rohani, who negotiated with Obama the end of the atomic plan. These ultra-nationalist fundamentalists are articulating with the American hawks behind the concept of the worst. What is serious is that this time, everything seems to confirm that the two will get away with it.