A story of keys and hidden letters – 05/11/2019

The version appears from time to time and always refers to a strong letter that the government would have in the sleeve, ready to play thoroughly before a possible dollar blow, maybe less. Without asking any questions, the head of a department in the Cabinet suggests that the document exists, but refuses to give any details: "I can not say anything, we have to wait," he says. Does it cover information or mask it in order to keep the waiting alive?

Clarin Bulletins

What you need to know today | The most important news of the day to read in ten minutes

Monday to Friday morning.

A front-line consultant, former director of the Central Bank, comments on the riddle: "If it's an aid from the US Treasury, it should go through the congressional filter and then, I'll see it too cumbersome. It would be easier to force him to use an exchange system armed by the Federal Reserve, similar to the Chinese exchange that the country has already concluded, presented as a generalized escape route from a systemic risk. approximately $ 10,000 million.

According to information handled by the former BCRA, Mauricio Macri and Donald Trump have discussed the situation and needs of Argentina, but not only. "They also talked about an exit from the Venezuelan crisis," he said, "which is a case in which Trump is stuck in his hands". Predictable and obvious, the government he broke down the part of the dialogue that suited him best.

After adjustment for US support, a series of badumptions were made about the limits of the new agreement with the Monetary Fund and what the Central Bank should do, in the event of a strong currency market event.

Look also

For a start, some argue that BCRA President Guido Sandleris should take charge of the entity's monetary table and personally oversee its operations. "The key is act quickly, they affirm.

Some sources say that Sandleris should consult each movement with Alejandro Werner and Roberto Cardarelli, who are responsible for the Argentinian file at the IMF.

But let us add, starting from the hypothesis of this hypothesis: "It would be a waste of time, when to take the potatoes out of the fire does not waste time." Here is the well-known example of last-minute purchases that, in a matter of minutes, raise the price of the dollar to two or three pesos. "At this stage, they warn, freedom of action is crucial and it is urgent to act without delay."

A variant would be to agree with Werner and Cardarelli a formula to deal with similar problems. This time, the exit would take as a parameter the price of the real money or another currency of an emerging country, such as Argentina, plus a little more. "If the dollar exceeds this level, the central sells reservations without prior consultation"Says someone who believes that this mechanism has already been discussed and that, if it exists, it bears the seal of strictly secret.

Look also

In any event, it seems that the Fund accepts full freedom of movement, forming part of the contract and being the depositary. But it is also true that the original agreement is little more than nothing, mostly for misdiagnosis by the same IMF technicians. Or committed by not taking into account some peculiarities of the Argentine economy.

In a quick count, they appear among the results of the application of non-compliant inflation targets; the rigid exchange rate bands, then flexibilized if they are not erased and the zero-based monetary issue to end an ongoing inflationary process.

And while it is true that the badumption of a freedom of action without conditioning seems like a lot, it is not the case surprise factor is a centerpiece of the operator. According to a specialist who has experienced similar trances: "It is to allow the BCRA to intervene without showing his letters before, to let speculators know that there is a risk of losing money. And if it suits you, make him lose. "

Another hypothesis of the chain of badumptions is based on the amount of money that Sandleris could put on the table. "If we are talking about $ 9,000 million, it seems to me that they do not reach ", said the man.

And when do you think the exchange climate will start to get very hot? Clarín asked him.

Look also

Answer: "And …, more or less when everyone calculates.The strong market test would occur from the second week of July, that is, when the applications are already launched. Then, the real firepower of the Central Bank will be put to the test. "

This means, in fact, that it's better not to be excited for the calm of these days. Although this also validates a fact on the horizon of the government: that to avoid, with all possible weapons, that by October the dollar exceeds the barrier of 50 pesos. They know that a good part of their electoral chances are played there.

All possible weapons include those that Trump will deploy, since the US president's proposal to re-elect Macri is already obvious. And not only for a personal problem: in the center lies the mistrust that Trump generates for Cristina Kirchner and, even more, Cristina's connection with the Nicolás Maduro regime and with the external forces that revolve around Maduro.

It seems clear that Werner, Cardarelli and Christine Lagarde must themselves meet the objectives of the United States. and those of other powers that weigh in the IMF's repertoire. This has been tried again, it is not exactly an independent body.

But as all the commitments with the Fund are not malleable, Nicolás Dujovne quickly overcame an increase in the statistical rate of taxation of imports. And in such a hurry that now there would be adjustments to a measure that affects exports and domestic production related to inputs and goods from outside.

Dujovne's problem is that tax collection does not reach and he has to raise revenues in one way or another because the zero budget deficit agreed with the IMF disappears. And if it is impossible to reach the goal, the phase shift should be minimal and tolerable.

A detail that is not just a detail: the decision coincided with the arrival of Cardarelli and his team, who have just reviewed the progress of the stand-by. And since the IMF mission must submit a report to the board of directors, it makes no sense to add discomfort to the unease that is already accumulating from people with whom the minister must deal.

It may be just a procedure, but the report gives a free $ 5,500 million that the government needs as water.