The political commandments to enter the 21st century

The appeal of Casa Rosada to seek agreements with political leaders and social actors to extend the horizon of Argentina beyond the elections of 2019 has brought to light the lack of political gymnastics of the last 15 years in this field. So much so that it is already difficult to specify what issues need to be discussed and how to deal with coincidences and dissent.

In the context of the electoral campaign, those who proposed and / or accepted the dialogue presented their own proposals, with sometimes contradictory objectives, but without the public policies necessary to achieve them; not a lot of delays and costs. This also applies to the ten guidelines proposed to the opposition by President Mauricio Macri as a governance agreement, presumably until 2023, and which have received support from larger commercial entities.

It was a virtual turning point. Immediately, these points were excluded from cristinismo and unionism K with the dubious label of "electoral", although they reflect, paradoxically, a good part of the program signed with the IMF. Instead, they sought to give certainty to markets in the midst of electoral uncertainty and to impose the predictable rejection of Kirchnerism. With a populist demagoguery, Máximo Kirchner reduces them to four (breakfast, lunch, snack and dinner every day). Not only that. The previous week, Cristina Kirchner justified in her own book not to have entrusted the cane and the presidential band to Macri to avoid recording a "surrender report". In contrast, the political dialogue was accepted – with reparations – by Roberto Lavagna, Martín Lousteau and Sergio Mbada, with the request to invite CFK, which was collected by the government. Also for the Church, after asking about the lack of mention of poverty.

Whether by necessity, conviction or convenience, the predisposition to debate is always redeemable in the middle of a crack where politics, at its extremes, often resembles the irreducible fanaticism of a Boca River. This is why it does not seem that the idea of ​​CFK to promote a new social contract, set out at the virtual launch of its bid for the Book Fair, be proposed in a democratic, pluralist and pluralistic debate.

The problem is that if the electorate remains divided by three-thirds in the first round of elections, any successful candidate will not have a majority in Congress and will need political agreements to govern. Nor can it ignore the legacy of current leadership or the limits imposed by the agreement with the IMF to correct macroeconomic imbalances.

In taking office in 2015, Macri said that when he returned to the world, Argentina would enter the twenty-first century late. But it failed to leave out the structural and institutional problems that have persisted since the second half of the twentieth century and to explain the decline of Argentina. History indicates that the policies of "living with what belongs to us" and "living on loan" have failed. Also, the magical realism of believing that a president can solve everything by himself. Still today in Buenos Aires, posters are titled "Stop the Suffering, CFK 2019".

To the extent that, until the elections, it is difficult to reach an agreement on what should be done in the future, it would be desirable for Argentine leaders to make commitments on what to do. Do not do it. This is a set of political commands, in which the acceptance or rejection must be explicit in each case:

Do not tolerate inflation. This is the most difficult to achieve because it requires commitment from all sectors, starting with the state in all its jurisdictions. Argentina's inflation is indefensible in every respect and its constant reduction is an inevitable condition for reducing poverty. Over the years, with the gradual indexation of the economy and the distortion of relative prices, disproportionate increases in public spending had to be liquefied by greater devaluations, which made the distribution of income more regressive and slowed social mobility. A comprehensive program including a deindexing mechanism – such as the 1985 Austral Plan, but with a strong fiscal austerity component – would help shorten deadlines and improve expectations, although this will take time.

No to default on the debt. The high risk rate by country reflects to a large extent the mistrust of the Argentine "record" of non-compliance of external creditors – which culminated at the end of 2001 – as well as of almost all agreements with the IMF. in 50 years. The cause has always been the recurring shortage of genuine currencies, which has generally occurred after periods of cheap dollars. The economist Orlando Ferreres traced this sequence with the clear sentence: "In Argentina, we celebrate the credits and we mourn the debts". Today, country risk quadruples the region's average, collapsing the price of sovereign bonds, prevents the automatic renewal of future external maturities and complicates medium-term debt sustainability, especially if the economy does not develop. The possible terms of an orderly renegotiation will depend on the political will to pay and not the other way around. Also trade policies and agreements to increase exports, attract foreign direct investment and reduce the external account deficit.

More whitening. Newspapers whitening tributaries – some without cost and almost to measure – were a punishment for respectful taxpayers. At the same time, the increasing and significant tax burden of the past decade has increased the "risk" of escape, the complexity of maneuvers to camouflage it, the size of the black economy and unfair competition. State efforts should focus on reducing the number of taxes, reducing rates and speeding up the removal of distortion-biased levies, which means designing a serious restructuring plan for public spending in the first place. in the medium term, to set priorities and remove privileges generating first-clbad citizens. second category It would also be necessary to promote a special two-thirds majority in Congress to approve any tax increases.

Do not tolerate corruption or impunity. If the blanqueos devote inequality before the law, tolerance for action or the omission of corruption leads to extreme impunity. Judicial proceedings take decades for serious and confessed crimes or, worse still, they prescribe because of a final judgment. It also takes years to fill vacancies in the relevant courts. Without the broadest possible political consensus, this evil has no cure. The domain extinction law was drained to Congress. Lawmakers prosecuted for corruption maintain their privileges until a final judgment is ever delivered. There is also no reason to justify this enrichment and the union leaders for life are not obliged to submit tax returns as citizens. In this context, any former leader, leader or legislator imprisoned for corruption or illicit enrichment can proclaim himself a political prisoner without blinking. And this does not exclude a possible amnesty, de facto or de jure, depending on the outcome of the elections.

Do not take hostages. It also requires broad political and social agreements to prevent citizens or students from primary or secondary schools from being held hostage by social or trade union conflicts. The right to protest is imposed by force on the free movement. In the last ten years, the schools in Buenos Aires have lost a full year of clbades due to teachers' work stoppages, with no one being held responsible for breaking the law of 180 days of compulsory leave or extended. It is true that the teaching function must be hierarchical, but also the demand for results. Otherwise, the quality of education will continue to deteriorate, as will training for current and future jobs in the 21st century.

[email protected]