The AMLO pension system, an "unsustainable" program that will not withstand the "demographic tsunami"

In the words of the National Commission for the Retirement Savings System (CONSAR), Aging is a "tsunami" it's coming

If in 2014 the number of Seniors in Mexico it was 8.0 million. It is expected that this figure will rise to 10 million by 2030 and will increase further by 2050. It is estimated that the number of Mexicans over the age of 65 will be 24.4 million.

"This structural change will create major challenges for public policies, in particular a big impact on pension systems, which will be subject to strong financial pressures over the next decades, "warned in his report of 2019 the Consar.

According to his study, supported by the demographic projections of international organizations such as the United Nations or the OECD, the aging population in Mexico will result in dependent seniors increase as regards the population of working age.

For every 100 people of working age, there was 10 seniors in 2014. There will be 15 in 2030 and 25 in 2050.

An unsustainable pension system

"With the exception of retirement savings plan (SAR) plans, all other plans are technically bankrupt from a financial point of view. represent a growing and unsustainable tax burden for the public finances of the country, including the federal government itself, "warned Abraham Vela, president of the Consar.

At the end of López Obrador's six-year term, the tax burden arising from the pension system will be 193 billion pesos, according to newspaper estimates L & # 39; universal.

This means that maintaining a pension of 1,275 pesos per month for each senior, or increasing that amount, will inevitably result in a tax burden or an increase. Other, It will be unsustainable and will put the country into debt.

"This is a burden and a pressure, because it increases spending on pensions, all that increases will have to be reduced elsewhere, if you increase the budget of a social program such as 68 and over, you have to cut on the other side, and if you do not do it, you will have to incur debts to continue paying pensions ", Alejandra Macías, research director of the Center for Economic and Budgetary Research in a newspaper interview L & # 39; universal.

By 2024, there will be nearly 11 million elderly people in Mexico. Giving everyone 1,275 pesos a month is equivalent to 0.63% of GDP.

If the support was to be maintained after the administration of López Obrador, the new government should grant aid to nearly 15 million beneficiaries, which would have a tax impact 316 billion pesos in 2030or 0.77% of GDP.

Alejandra Macías said that help is needed because of the precarious situation in which many elderly people live. However, he argued that to reduce the pressure on the budget, it would be necessary to contain the cost of the most expensive pensions.

"20% of the budget allocated to the distribution system is allocated to 3% of retirees. Very few people have high pensions"said the specialist.

Jorge Sánchez, director of the Applied Research Program of the Financial Studies Foundation, admired the government's efforts to support older people and said that could be funded with the cuts that the executive has applied in the administration.

Despite this, he pointed out the risks that the pension system could generate If the government does not increase your income.

"If everyone will be subsidized with this scheme, There will come a time when you will not reach the moneyand we will then resort to the pressure of the debt. The problem lies not only in this program, but in the resources that will also be allocated to young people, to single mothers, "said Sánchez.

"There is a risk of debt and it would not be good because we already have two six-year terms in which the liabilities doubled", added the expert.