Government's concern over the economic impact of the trade war between China and the United States

It was not only the tough electoral defeat of Cambiemos in Córdoba that changed the parsimony of Casa Rosada yesterday. The government was also concerned about the impact that the trade war triggered between China and the United States would entail in the short and medium term.

Of the president Mauricio Macri down there is a state of alert on the keyboard of Economy, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Production and Agribusiness who grew up in the last hours because of escalating the commercial battle between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

In the official offices, they warned Infobae that this war could have two concrete consequences for Argentina: a new exchange rate on the local market and the possible complication of the agricultural sector to place the country's products at a cost-effective price.

The issue had been discussed at Casa Rosada before the new global scenario: last week, Trump had decided to raise Chinese tariffs on Chinese products to the tune of 200 billion US dollars, from 10% to 25%. And Beijing's response did not wait to announce that as of June 1, tariffs would increase by 5 to 25% on 5 140 products from the United States, which has lowered the price soybean on the Chicago Stock Exchange. at its lowest value for almost 11 years.

In practice, this was reflected yesterday in Argentina on a rise in the dollar and country risk. But in government, they admit that the issue could become more complicated in the coming months if the trade battle is promoted.

Macri yesterday held a follow-up meeting of economics topics in the Rose House scientists room with Minister Nicolás Dujovne and his team. According to highlighted to Infobae Government officials have raised the issue of the trade war between China and the United States and its local impact, even though Dujovne denied discussing the issue.

However, the issue has also been discussed in recent hours at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Production. Dante Sica, who spoke yesterday with the secretary of agribusiness Luis Etchevehere, who was in Japan for a previous G20 meeting and will be traveling to China today.

In private life, Macri yesterday remarked to his officials that he appreciated Trump's support for Argentina, but also admitted that he could not leave the war triggered between the United States and China. This situation, said the president to his relatives, "could complicate the country because it can not be resolved because it exceeds Argentina".

The official announcement to add to Argentina as "MSCI Emerging Markets" and developed has not brought calm to Casa Rosada.
According to the Ministry of the Economy, the impact of the Washington-Beijing trade battle could create short-term precedents, as Argentina is expected to sell soybeans at lower prices and the United States could also restrict its products.

Argentine countryside sells about $ 4,000 million worth of soybeans a year to China and much of this year's harvest is already sold. Although in the immediate future, it may be very difficult to place this product at a lower price.

Etchevehere reviewed the subject in Japan yesterday and today he will discuss it with the Chinese authorities when he arrives in Shanghai for the World Food Fair. "We are very attentive, in the government, to the dispute between China and the United States, because for Argentina, the Chinese market is very attractive, as was the case at the opening of the pork, and the concrete impact of the This may have an impact on all of this in our country, "said Infobae a manager close to the secretary of agribusiness.

From China, Argentine ambbadador Diego Guelar has tried to calm the government in the last few hours. In the communication that he has been maintaining both with the Foreign Ministry and with the government's economic wing, the representative of Argentina in Beijing said that "the biggest problem that the Argentina will face will not be the battle between the United States and China, but the lack of production or stocks to provide to the Chinese. "

In any event, Ambbadador Guelar told Casa Rosada that in the short term, the trade war of Trump and Xi Jinping would not pose a problem for Argentina. as long as our country manages to meet the required demand and to fill the deficit of about 7 billion dollars of trade balance with China. This figure is not lower if it is noted that Brazil, neighboring country, is better off than Argentina in the face of this global crisis for a simple reason: its trade surplus with China is 37 000 million dollars.

There is another seasoning that adds adrenaline and complications to all these exogenous factors. It is about the concrete pressure exerted by the United States on the Macri administration because of the striking concessions granted by Argentina to the Chinese market, armed forces and state.

China's progress in the region, and particularly in Argentina, is of great concern to the United States, and this is what Trump officials have repeatedly said to their Argentinean counterparts over the past two years.

The last sign of this malaise in Washington was perceived by the provisional Speaker of the Senate. Federico Pinedo, who traveled last week with a group of Argentine lawmakers in the United States. In the interviews that took place with their counterparts in North America or with several think thank you The question of the Chinese space station in Neuquén, concessions in nuclear energy and progress in the field of conventional energy arise.

The Battle of Trump and XI goes beyond the horizons. For now, the government announced last night that it would be necessary to follow day by day what is happening in the markets and in the commercial flow to badess with certainty the collateral damage of the biggest trade war that has occurred. place in recent decades.