The collapse of soybeans is already costing the country $ 3 billion.

For more than a decade, China has been a source of good news for Argentina. In addition to its constant demand for soybeans and derivatives (flour and oil) to feed its growing middle clbad, the price of oilseeds has risen to more than $ 500 per tonne between 2011 and 2014.

Argentina, the world's third largest producer and exporter of by-products, was one of the big winners. In recent years, one in three dollars brought into the country by exports came from the soybean complex.

But the breeze that has been reversed in recent months is the product of two novelties in which the Asian giant has a leading role: its commercial "war" with the United States and the epidemic of African swine fever that affects its establishment of 600 million pigs.

These phenomena, coupled with record global soybean production, have resulted in the uncontrolled collapse of oilseeds in recent weeks. Yesterday, after China announced new tariffs on products imported from the United States, its price was below $ 290 in the Chicago market, the lowest since 2006.

"On a crop estimated at 56 million tons this year, every 10 dollars lowering the price, the country loses $ 560 million.Today this year, soybeans have already lost between $ 50 and $ 60; that is to say nearly 3,000 million dollars less for the Argentine economy, "said the economist of the Mediterranean Foundation Ieral, Juan Manuel Garzón.

If you take that same parameter for Córdoba, where the province's grain exchange estimates 14.5 million tonnes, the global economic loss would be $ 750 million.

This collapse also has an impact on public accounts. Soybeans pay 18% of fixed source deductions, plus four pesos for every dollar exported, for a total rate of about 27%. This means that the drop in prices subtracts $ 810 million or $ 37,000 million in export duties.

Causes and effects

According to badyst Enrique Erize and the head of the Novositas Agricultural Council, the loss of soybean value began a year ago when US President Donald Trump, angered by the bilateral trade deficit, unleashed a "war" against the Asian country. The United States has decided to increase tariffs on Chinese producers by increasing tariffs on products by 25%, including US soybeans. "Oilseeds are not the reason for the trade war, but the victim.The Chinese chose soybeans to hit Trump at the waterline," said Erize.

In a year, the negotiations were never successful and the conflict intensified in the last few hours, when the US announced more tariffs and China counter-attacked with more aliquots. "They are causing a global crisis in all grains, not just soybeans, and they are also dragging wheat and maize," said Pablo Adreani, an agricultural markets badyst.

The hope is that by not buying soybeans in the United States, China will turn to South America and the price falls in Brazil and Argentina will not be as strong, which is already happening. In practice.

Whatever the case may be, the most serious problem is swine fever, which would force China to sacrifice between 100 and 200 million pigs. "The African fever will liquidate 15% of her flock and reduce the demand for flour," said Adreani. "The market is shocked for something dramatic, which has no short-term solution, "said Erize.

In autumn

Without floor. The price of soy is the lowest since 2006.

U $ S 287. That's the price per ton that came to mark soybeans yesterday in the Chicago market, nearly six dollars (or two percent) below Friday.