Chavismo and the opposition negotiate for the first time in Oslo a solution to the crisis

CARACAS.- Two parallel negotiations today are upsetting the politics of

Venezuela

. The meetings held on Tuesday and Wednesday in Oslo and those of the contact group of the

European Union

(EU) and the countries of the region are advancing the first unilateral talks between Chavez and the opposition, but also confirm the huge differences between the two sides.

Norway and the EU are both very aware of the progress of the Venezuelan labyrinth. For months, Norwegian envoys involved in the Colombian peace process traveled to Caracas until the Oslo meeting, with the participation of Stalin González, second vice-president of Parliament, who also heads the dialogues with the contact group.

The main obstacle to progress in both initiatives is the absolute mistrust of the democratic parliament vis-à-vis the intentions of the government. Chavismo has traditionally used negotiations with the opposition to buy time and encourage internal division between different parts of the democratic unit.

In memory of the failure of the 2016 dialogues, blamed by the Vatican, who acted as mediator

Nicolás Maduro

violation of the agreement. Another historic fiasco, that of Santo Domingo in early 2018, prevented the revolution from "laundering" the presidential elections in May.

The meetings also take place in the midst of the new revolutionary attack on the Democratic Parliament, which already includes three incarcerated deputies, 11 exiles, eight hiding, five in protected embbadies, three unincorporated and two with precautionary measures. On the blacklist does not appear, for the moment, Stalin González, although the other vice president, Edgar Zambrano, has already been arrested last week.

The other two opposition representatives in Norway are ex-mayor Gerardo Blyde, expert in constitutional law, and Fernando Martínez Mottola, former minister of Carlos Andrés Pérez, today one of the senior government advisers.

Juan Guaidó

.

The Chavista Commission is composed of Jorge Rodríguez, Vice President of Communications, and Governor Héctor Rodríguez, one of Maduro's dolphins. The revolutionary leader indirectly confirmed last night the presence of Rodriguez in the Norwegian capital saying that he "fulfills a very important mission abroad."

Starting point

In principle, the agreement is to speak separately with Norwegian mediators and until now, a face-to-face meeting between the two commissions had not yet been confirmed. The starting point of the opposition is the same in both negotiations: to achieve free and democratic elections, the cessation of the usurpation must take place. The government, meanwhile, claims to arrive with the agenda open, but does not contemplate the holding of presidential elections.

According to the latest Datbadisis survey, Maduro enjoys a popular support of 12.9%, against 56.5% of Guaidó. The negative perception of the country is huge according to this survey: 94.8%.

Representatives of the Contact Group, whose main objective is the holding of free and democratic elections, began arriving yesterday evening in the Venezuelan capital. They will be received by opposition leaders and the government tomorrow. The contact group is led by Federica Mogherini, Chancellor of the EU, and comprises eight European countries (Spain, France, Germany, United Kingdom, Sweden, Italy, Portugal, the Netherlands) and four from the region (Uruguay, Ecuador, Costa Rica and Bolivia). The government of Evo Morales has not signed any of the final documents after the summits of Montevideo, Quito and San Jose Costa Rica.

The opposition leader insisted that he would not lend himself to a new "false dialogue" and that there could be no elections with Maduro in power. "First and foremost, the usurpation must stop," insisted Guaidó. However, in recent days, contacts with the European embbadies have helped to consolidate the meetings of the next hours.

"The government and the opposition have become radicalized, they are at war and that is not resolved if there are no institutions of mediation in the conflict, even in the wars. The Contact Group seeks to be this reliable mediation, and sooner or later they will have to look for basic agreements, "predicted Luis Vicente León, president of Datanálisis.