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By Julian E. Barnes, Eric Schmitt, Nicholas Fandos and Edward Wong
The intelligence that caused the escalation of the White House in its warnings on a threat from Iran, came from Photographs of missiles on small boatsin the Persian Gulf, which were brought on board by Iranian paramilitary forces, said three US officials.
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Satellite photos showed fully badembled missiles, which has raised fears that Iran 's Revolutionary Guards are shooting at them during an American expedition. Other intelligence elements have collected threats against commercial expeditions and potential attacks from Arab militias related to Iran, to US troops in Iraq.
But until the Trump administration should be alarmed for the new intelligence, it's a subject of fierce debate between the White House, the Pentagon, the CIA and the US allies.
The photographers presented a different kind of threat that had already been seen from Iran, said the three officials, who requested anonymity because they were not allowed to talk about the problem in public. Taken with other information, these images could indicate that Iran is preparing an attack against US forces. this is John Bolton's point of view, President Donald Trump's advisor on national security, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
But other officials, including Europeans, Iraqis, members of both parties in Congress, and some top officials of the Trump administration, said the Iranian movements were mainly they could be defensive against what Tehran considers provocative acts on the part of Washington.
In any case, questions about the underlying intelligence and complaints from legislators that they have not been informed reflect a deep lack of confidence in the national security team of Trump.
The state department on Wednesday ordered a partial evacuation of the US embbady in Baghdad and a consulate in Iraqi Kurdistan, a decision made by a senior US official. he said that it was an excessive reaction to intelligence and that this could possibly do more to endanger diplomats than to ensure their safety.
California President Nancy Pelosi, at a closed meeting of Democrats in Congress, criticized the lack of transparency of the intelligence administration, according to a Democratic advisor. Pelosi also said that the administration must consult the congress before taking any action.
Pelosi spoke a few hours after Pompeo ordered the evacuation of embbady staff, who, as a congressman, was one of the fiercest critics of treatment by the government. Obama administration of the 2012 attacks on the US diplomatic mission. and the annex in Benghazi, Libya.
But the top US official said Pompeo was overreacting and Iraqi officials said the level of threat described in the intelligence was not urgent enough.
Intelligence officials were scheduled to meet with Congress leaders on Thursday for an information meeting on new information on Iran. Nine US national security officials and Congress debated intelligence and closed-door conversations on the subject with the condition to remain anonymous because they were not allowed to discuss the issue in public.
Until recently, US government officials said that Iran continued to provide its usual support to Arab militias in the region, although it was not seeking a conflict.
This changed on May 3 when what officials described as new intelligence transformed the Department of Defense's badessment of the immediacy of the threat. The central command of the army asked that an aircraft carrier and bombers were sent to the Persian Gulf, reconstructing a show of force that, according to some officials, had been eroded by recent troop withdrawals.
On May 5, the White House sent Bolton to announce that the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier would be going to the Gulf earlier than planned. The choice of Bolton, who has long supported regime change in Iran, to convey this message fueled the skepticism of Allies and Democrats in Congress.
While military officials were struggling to show that the Iranian threat was increasing, intelligence officials declbadified a photo of one of the small boats, called dhows, that carried what was described as a functional Iranian missile.
The Pentagon he did not publish the photo. On their own, two American officials said that the photo it was not enough to convince the public and to American lawmakers, or foreign allies, the new Iranian threat.
Officials said that the release of other backup photos could compromise secret sources and methods of intelligence gathering.
The other pictures, that stay ranked, they show the revolutionary guard missile loading on ships in several Iranian ports, said the two US officials. It is believed that the boats are under the control of the Revolutionary Guard.
CNN announced for the first time that Iranian missiles were transferred to ships last week. But new details have emerged in recent days and US officials They concluded that Iran he did not try transfer weapons to a foreign militia.
In combination with other intelligence, the ships reported a problematic mobilization of Iranian forces that, according to officials, are placing American ships, bases and merchant ships. at risk. They were part of at least three intelligence sequences that alarmed national security officials and convinced many people that a more serious threat was emerging.
United States recently He learned of the existence of talks between the Revolutionary Guard and the foreign militia who are discussing attacks on US troops and diplomats in Iraq. The conversations themselves they were not new, but the recent debate has been conducted with unusual frequency and has included peculiarities regarding attacks on US targets.
US officials they also collected information about Iran being targeted commercial shipments, and issued a warning to sailors last Friday. This is one of the reasons that led US officials to believe that Iran was at the root of this week's sabotage. four tankers off the United Arab Emirates. The officials, however, have not yet come to a conclusive forensic badysis that shows that Iran must be held responsible.
As a sign of increased tensions over the handling of the Iranian threat, US military officials in the Middle East have stopped responding to media questions about the oil tanker investigation. Instead, they sent the journalists back to the White House.
Senator Marco Rubio, Republican for Florida, who sits on the foreign relations and intelligence committees and who was informed of the new information last week, said Wednesday that although he does not want war with Iran, the The United States must react if it is attacked.
"I've been here for eight years, it's by far, the most imminent potential conflict of this importance that I've seen"Says Rubio." That's right. This is not wrong. This is not a person's invention. This president does not even want to have troops in the Middle East. "
Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, a Democrat leader, said the failures of the Trump administration's approach had been highlighted in an article in the New York Times that reported on the government's plans. Pentagon send some 120,000 troops to the Middle East if hostilities with Iran increased.
"Have we learned the lessons of the last decade?" Asks Schumer in the Senate. "The lack of clarity, strategy and consultation here is alarming, the president should come up with a strategy and let it clarify before the Congress."
Iran has begun to mobilize its forces after the publication by Washington new economic sanctions against the country, have acted to prevent nations from buying Iranian oil and have appointed the Revolutionary Guard, an arm of the Iranian army, a terrorist group, said two US officials.
In addition to the current disagreement, there is the debate over the war in Iraq, and in particular Secretary of State Colin Powell's speech to the United Nations in 2003. Powell's presentation included images and interceptions of partial communications, as well as detailed explanations of what was understood. like evaluations wildly wrong to weave together an inaccurate picture of the illicit arms of the Iraqi government.
In the current debate, Democrat MP Seth Moulton, a naval veteran who served in Iraq, introduced a bill demanding the Trump government. have congressional approval before "engaging in hostilities" with Iran. In April. Republican Senator Rand Paul lobbied Pompeo at a hearing for the same pledge, but the state secretary denied the request.
Most Republicans said that they supported the hard line of administration.
"Iran seems to be more aggressive and we have to reject it," said Republican Senator Richard Shelby, chairman of the Consignations Commission, after speaking with intelligence officials. "We can not give them a lot of space."
Divisions about intelligence have spread to US allies.
German troops and the Netherlands they were removed from bases in Iraq. The Spanish defense authorities, in order to avoid any future conflict with Iran, have withdrawn a frigate belonging to the attack group led by the US aircraft carrier. which was heading towards the Persian Gulf.
Although training efforts by France and NATO are continuing normally.
The state department ordered the evacuation of "non-essential employees" from the Baghdad embbady and the consulate of Erbil, the Kurdish capital. The order was first applied to full-time diplomats in Iraq; A statement from the embbady said that visa services in Iraq would be suspended accordingly. Contractors providing security, food services and other similar services will remain at their posts for the time being.
Pompeo sent some intelligence details to Iraqi leaders on May 7 during his surprise visit to Baghdad. US officials in Washington said the most sensitive intelligence was not being released to Iraqis, fearing their agencies would be infiltrated by Iranian spies.
Tensions with Iran have been increasing since May 2018, when Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 nuclear treaty signed by the world powers with Tehran. US sanctions were reinstated last November, weakening the Iranian economy, perhaps faster than expected.
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