"The horizon is very uncertain" | The UN warns …

As Mauricio Macri had expected early in his term, Argentina returns to the vanguard of the "world". However, it does not, because it is a reliable ground for productive investments, as promised by Cambio, but one of the worst actors in a complex international context. The latest report on the state of the world economy at the United Nations contains many references to Argentina and all are negative. He warned that "the horizon is very uncertain" and attributed in part to the "lack of government capacity to control inflation". It also highlights the "record" interest rate of the Central Bank.

The new document confirms that there is nothing left of this scenario of enthusiasm in the world of finance and between large companies because of the liberal economic measures that led the Macri government. The current moment is marked by the disbelief of the fact that the national economy is getting closer to "the abyss", as defined by the Spanish newspaper El País there is a month. Macri, foreign investors and financial badysts attribute the crisis to "legacy", to the global context and, in one case, to a certain incapacity of management, without, however, calling into question the neoliberal orientation of the program applied. .

The UN estimates that Argentina's GDP fell by 2.8% last year and that this year the decline will be 1.8%. In both cases, this is the only negative result in the countries of the region with the exception of Venezuela. Among the neighboring countries, Uruguay recorded growth of 1.9% and an increase of 1.5% is expected for this year; Paraguay, 4.5% and 4.7%; Brazil, 1.4 and 2.1; In Bolivia, 4.3 and 4.4, and in Chile, 3.9 and 3.3%.

But the relatively poor performance of Argentina is not limited to the region but stands out globally. The report warns that throughout 2018, the deterioration in the value of the peso was the most pronounced among economies with their own weight in the world. While the local currency has lost more than half of its purchasing power in dollars, the Turkish lira has exceeded 30%. India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and South Africa accounted for between 13 and 10% of the depreciation of the currency. It's better in the Philippines, Chile, China, South Korea, Taiwan and Mexico. The United Nations notes that the degree of deterioration in exchange rates in Argentina and Turkey "is due to national factors" and warns against the contagion effect of the Turkish case, due to the exposure European and mainly Spanish banks to the debtors of this country. There is also mention of financial troubles in Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa.

Indeed, the government is right to say that last year the economic context was unfavorable. The UN says that besides Argentina, India, Indonesia and Mexico have had to raise their interest rates and that next to the case Barbados, Pakistan and Sri Lanka have had to rely on IMF financial badistance. However, Argentina stands out because it has weathered a particularly difficult storm, so much so that its results have contributed to further imbalances.

"The fiscal and current account deficits, combined with the government's lack of capacity to control inflation, has led to increased pessimism about the future of the economy. With the economy in recession and the severe measures of fiscal austerity, the horizon is extremely uncertain, "says the report. He pointed out that in the region "household consumption slowed down in 2018, partly because of the weakening of the labor market and the sharp deterioration of the situation in Argentina".

The UN says that "the economic recovery due to the recession in 2018 has been particularly severe in Argentina" and adds that "most of the countries have remained in line with the inflation targets of their central banks, at the same time". With the exception of Argentina and Venezuela. . The inflation – optimistically estimated – by the United Nations of 32% for the year in Argentina is exceeded only by Iran (34.9), because there is no data for Venezuela.