Bad news for Argentina: the Brazilian economy contracted in the first quarter of this year

BRASILIA.- The economic difficulties encountered by the Government of

Jair Bolsonaro

they already have specific and worrying official data for both

Brazil

for Argentina: Brazil's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of this year, the first decline since the end of the 2015 recession -2016, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography. and statistics (IBGE).

During the last two years, during the administration of

Michel Temer

, the Brazilian economy had managed to emerge from the crisis level but with very weak growth, barely 1.1% in 2017 and 2018. The victory of the ultra-right Bolsonaro in the elections of &, B 39 October of last year, accompanied by a neoliberal team in charge of
Paulo Guedes, a renowned economist, has, however, raised great expectations in the market for improvements this year, particularly with respect to his ambitious pension reform proposal to end the gradual deficit in the public accounts.

Now, five months after the change of government,
The Bolsonaro pension reform project continues with serious obstacles to the Chamber of Deputies, mainly due to the failure of political articulation in the fragile base led by the Social Liberal Party (PSL) in power. The new GDP data add to another indicator that last month had already triggered alerts: the unemployment rate, which had ended in 2018 at 11.6% after several ups and downs, rose to 12.7% in the first quarter of this year. year, reflecting the weakness of economic activity and the challenges that the long-awaited recovery still faces.

The Depression

When confirming the fall in GDP, many badysts warned that the stagnation of the economy was already placing Brazil in a context of economic depression.

"The country is stopped After the recession, we are still not recovered, the population is impoverished and does not recoup its income.If this is not a sign of depression, I do not know what it is. is, "said Affoso Celso Pastore, former president of the Central Bank (1983-1985) and director of the consulting firm AC Pastore.

Meanwhile, President Bolsonaro seems more preoccupied with issues such as the agenda of conservative values ​​and gun flexibility than by the economic situation, and continues to generate controversy with his statements and his actions. Thus, market confidence melts from week to week. At the end of last year, growth forecasts for this year were 3% and, according to the Focus Report released weekly by the Central Bank as part of surveys conducted with badysts and badysts. of financial entities, it has already fallen to 1.23% in its latest edition. The Ministry of Economy had already reduced its expectations from 2.2% to 1.6% last week.

"The year 2019 is a central element to badess whether Brazil is walking for a depression or for the return of growth," said Sergio Vale of MB Asociados.

Among the major economic sectors, civil construction fell 2%, investment 1.7%, industry 0.7%, the worst result since the last quarter of 2016 (-1.8%) , largely because of a sharp reduction in the extractive industry (-6.3%) after the tragedy of a mining dam in Brumadinho, while agricultural activity s & # 39; 39, is contracted by 0.5%. Public consumption fell by 0.4% and that of families by 0.3%. In contrast, while exports fell 1.9%, imports rose 0.5%.