Macri plays to be the winter captain for Kirchner

Then, his main concepts:

• The last few months, those of autumn and the beginning of winter, have been the best of the year for the President
  

  Macri
  
  after a complicated summer. And an April even more complicated. But since the beginning of May, the government has received valuable help from the government
  

  MFIs
  
  . The Fund has agreed to break the theory that when a country is in debt and has an agreement with the agency, it can not intervene in the foreign exchange market. Argentina had signed this commitment last year, but had recourse to the IMF for Macri's personal management with the United States, and the Fund had allowed the Central Bank to intervene in the foreign exchange market. . This decision was the first step in a long sequence, which is still ongoing and keeps the price of the dollar at bay.

• In April, two phenomena occurred simultaneously. First, the polls that placed Macri very far from the possibility of victory. Second, the most troubling fact for the government: the sense of lack of control that the dollar had. There was a minicorrida this month, before the liquidation of the dollars from this year's big crop harvest. This situation of instability was created with the intervention of the foreign exchange market.
• From there, the dollar was under control. And that in Argentina has a very important political value. Argentines know that the idea of ​​an uncontrolled dollar is the way to hyperinflation. He recalls the ghosts who are incarnated and who are in the collective unconscious of the Argentines. In addition, the government came to sharply adjust tariffs, which also fueled inflation. There was an economic badtail in its root and political in its derivation, in a year
  

  the elections
  

• This happened in May, pbaded in June and the dollar calmed down and, from July, some say the dollar is falling dangerously. As the dollar went down, the positive image of the government and the intention to vote for Macri grew. These days, the government says, with enough confidence, that they are close to the front
  

  Alberto Fernández
  
  with
  

  Cristina Kirchner
  
  ; who recognize that he stays ahead in investigations, but that the difference is drastically reduced. They dare to think of repeating the scenario of 2015, when Scioli took it away on Macri to PASO, but on a short enough distance to provoke a reaction in the first round.

• The difference with this scenario is that there is currently no such powerful third force
  

  Sergio Mbada
  
  in 2015. In any case, there is a weakened "third way", that of Lavagna, and the badumption that Macri can lose a right-wing vote on the part of
  

  José Luis Espert
  
  . But this choice is above all a hand in hand of the STEP, and a first round can become definitive. Macrism and Kirchnerism consider that the election can be hastily defined in the first round.

• What happens in the STEP of August 11, the final figure that follows, will undoubtedly move the markets. This is the big unknown, the impact on the markets when they open on Monday after the PASS. If the difference is between 0 and 5 points in favor of kirchnerism, the government believes that there will be no major drawback, both on the market and in the first round. If the difference is between 5 and 10 points, it becomes more complicated. We should see the strength of the market and the ability of the government to intervene.
• The scenario of a triumph of Kirchnerism more powerful, more than 10 points of difference, would be very different. A situation that the government does not anticipate and the most independent investigations show that the difference has actually been reduced. Especially since the announcement of Alberto Fernández at the head of the formula of Kirchnerism.
• It is difficult to explain what will be the role of Cristina Kirchner in a hypothetical government, how roles would be divided between them.
  He went this week to visit Lula in prison and says that he believes in the innocence of
  

  Lula
  
  . Which also means that he believes in the innocence of the leaders of Kirchnerism imprisoned, prosecuted or accused of extremely serious corruption. Alberto Fernández has a hard time getting away from Cristina's figure. He is not a candidate of his own space, but a candidate invited to lead another space by the natural leader of this space, Cristina.

• The government, for its part, is very attentive to the demonstrations and the escraches that have unfolded these days, because, if there was previously a political resource, when he could not talk about the economy, it was Was the contrast with Kirnerism, that of stopping the idea of ​​the "return" of Kirchnerism, it was his main electoral weapon. He is now trying to rally this weapon with the idea that "the worst of the crisis is over" (an idea of ​​the government), with some indicators that help him. To this it should be added that this year's joint agreements have begun to be disbursed; which installs to the government the idea that between July and August, there will be some economic calm, to allow Macri to sell the hope of a better future.