The Monetary Fund predicts a bigger fall in the Argentine economy

"The The Argentine economy contracted in the first quarter of the year, though at a slower pace than in 2018", the technicians of the International Monetary Fund were evaluated by presenting the latest update of the report" Perspectives of the World Economy "in Santiago de Chile.

Last April, the international organization predicted that GDP would fall by 1.2%. And for 2020, according to the Fund, Argentina will recover and grow by 1.1%, but a few months earlier, it had estimated an improvement of 2.2%. %.

At the Latin American level, the Fund noted that at the beginning of 2019, activity had "slowed down considerably" in several economies in the region as a result of "idiosyncratic factors".

The most worrying case is that of Venezuela, whose GDP will fall by 35% this year, according to the lender.

For the region as a whole, the new report expects growth of 0.6% (0.8 percentage point less than in April) and a rebound to 2.3% in 2020.

When they explained the weakest global growth, IMF technicians said:

• A new escalation of trade tensions.
• Persistent uncertainty about fiscal policy and deteriorating debt dynamics in some heavily indebted countries.
• A worsening of tensions in major emerging markets currently plunged into difficult macroeconomic adjustment processes (such as Argentina and Turkey).
• Deceleration slower than expected in China.

The growth forecast for 2019 in the two most powerful economies in Latin America is 0.8% for Brazil and 0.9% for Mexico, which is lower than last April's forecast.

"The significant downward revision for 2019 reflects the credit rating reductions of Brazil and Mexico," the fund said.

And compared to Brazilheld that "the mood has deteriorated significantly, given the lingering uncertainty surrounding the approval of pension reform and other structural reforms.".

For the body, the weaker global growth is the result of "a aggravating tensions in major emerging markets who are currently Iimmersed in difficult macroeconomic adjustment processes "and cites as an example Argentina and Turkey".