STEP, an electoral body with a huge economic impact – Opinion

A low-intensity democracy plays its fate every time it goes to the polls. Although more than 35 years have pbaded since its restoration, this invariably occurs with local democracy.

In fact, the vote on the date is a simulation, because it is done to define something that is already defined: the candidatures for the presidency. What will not be, however, a simulation is the strong impact that the outcome will have on the economy and the political future of the country.

In the shadow of a rain of opinion polls that predict a Kirchner victory by varying margins, economic badysts, media and consultants have agreed that if the vote today Ended with a defeat of more than five points by Mauricio Macri or if the Fernandez were close to 45%, the generals of October will already be lost to the benefit of the government, while businessmen and consumers will want to take refuge in the dollar. There will be a paralysis of investment and consumption. The electoral backlash will hit the economy paralyzing the slow recovery and threatening the precarious stability of recent months.
If, on the contrary, Macri wins or loses little by little, the expectations of a triumph in October will consolidate the downward trend of inflation and strengthen the recovery of consumption. Victory and failure are welcome.

It was striking, however, that before this worrying situation, the markets closed positively on Friday. The stock market has increased, the country risk has decreased, the dollar has remained unchanged and the role of the banks has improved. Some Wall Street shares climbed to 10%. In a word, the markets seemed to bet on a result different from that of the surveys disseminated by the media. It should be remembered that investors are also the first to withdraw when they see a danger. They did it last April, when the economy gave the first signs of unsustainability.

The worrying prospects are due to a reality: a possible return of K to power generates economic and political uncertainties. Economic because the presidential candidate predicts a devaluation and calls into question the payment of the rent of Leliqs. He and other industry spokespersons also anticipated that they would not respect the agreements with the IMF, freeze prices and not relocate exchange control.

On the other hand, the political uncertainty is obvious. The presidential candidate has been nominated by the vice presidential candidate who is the one with the votes. He is his straw man. Alberto Fernández revealed in the campaign a relationship of love-hate with her. He went on to say that the "anger of the people" with CFK makes Macri competitive by saying that he "would never fight with her again". An unprecedented auto cancellation.

Why if Macri loses a little in the STEP, can he expect a victory to the generals? Because Kirchnerism works better in the first case than in the second. In 2015, for example, he obtained 38.41% of the markets and 36.86% in general, a decrease of 1.55%. On the other hand, Macri obtained 30% of the PASS and 34.33 of the general, that is more than four additional points. A similar phenomenon occurred in the province of Buenos Aires.

The big difference between the STEP and the general is also the level of participation. In 2015, there were two and a half million fewer voters in the first case than in the second. Kirchner voters are more militant and politicized than Macri voters.

That's why the president called on them to vote and declare publicly that they would do it for the government. Although at Casa Rosada, they manage to say it well, the impression that the president can benefit from the so-called "shameful vote" has been extended. While voters K "micromilize" their vote until the exhibition, because they are very ideological, those who reject the former president and use any tool for it 's sake. to oppose it, prefer anonymity. Something similar happened with the voters of Carlos Menem in the 90s.

In short, PSOs have become a key example of the electoral process. They will show not only the level of support from the government and the opposition, but also the reaction of factual powers. They can put an end to the uncertainty. It remains only to know in what way.