Businessmen demand "rationality" to cope with the transition

Given the strength of the data and the virtual certainty that the results of PASO will be irreversible and mark the end of Mauricio Macri's management, the businessmen ask the government to take care of the main economic variables for the purpose. to face the desired transition neat and with signs of rationality.

Businessmen believe that there will be no more uncertainty, but they think that the election result is precisely due to the scenario of uncertainty that has prevailed so far in the country.

That is why they expect that what will happen in the coming months with the dollar, interest rates, inflation, reserves and country risk will be essential to prevent the crisis from deepening and to mark the crisis. beginning of the next government They have doubts, it will be headed by Alberto Fernández.

"We expect the government to be rational, because the days to come will be decisive, especially if you take into account what is already happening with the dollar that has soared in an incredible way, which will have an impact on the whole chain. economy, "he said. one of the leading leaders in the energy sector.

In fact, several businessmen consulted by Professional They say the government should not touch interest rates by bringing exchange rates back to levels even higher than current ones to "catch" investors who do not want to stay.

Similarly, Javier Madanes Quintanilla is interested in what will happen with the exchange rate, the stock of cash and the decisions that companies will make regarding the purchase and sale of dollars and the future of investments.

"Days of complicated definitions come and in which the ball is on the side of the government since the opposition will look, it will not do anything because there is no room for a transition" warns the owner of Aluar, who warns that the central bank There is no place to maintain its orthodox policy and predicts that Macri's international support "will have changes".

Madanes is in turn surprised by the results of PASO this Sunday, which reflect a strong electoral defeat for the government and an almost irreversible success for the kirnerian formula led by Alberto Fernández.

"We are all surprised that the previous polls have put in place a scenario of parity that has not materialized, so what will be the days, the round trips and the few changes to come," said the owner of the tire manufacturer Fate.

Like other colleagues, Madanes also believes that the government is unlikely to change the results of the OSP in October and ensures that it will therefore depend on the steps taken to find out under what conditions they will leave management.
Aghujero for all important society. In paratye, inflation, investments. This is not graffiti.

In keeping with its vision, the government should start giving clear indications on the measures it will take to deal with the coming months, especially until the October national elections.

"The ball is on the government's court because Alberto Fernández will see everything while trying to capitalize on the ruling party's wear and tear," he adds.
Regarding the future of Macri, the executive believes that it will be difficult for him to reverse the results of PASO and warns that, in this context, the president should strive to generate the least possible imbalance in the economic variables.

"There will be a lot of pressure on the finances, a big debate among those who have advanced the thing, adopted the laws and demanded," adds Madanes Quintanilla, for whom the exchange rate will also be important to badyze what will happen with the movement of capitals

Among economists, opinions on the future are reflected in the opinion of Orlando Ferreres, for whom key variables such as the dollar and rates will show symptoms of instability. "It will be like this in the coming days, although I also think that the reserves will be used sparingly and that the agreement with the IMF will continue to be negotiated," he added.

For his part, Ignacio Noel expects a sharp rise in the dollar, rates and a process of selling dollars to the Central Bank at a rate that will allow the government to arrive until October.

For the CEO of Sociedad Comercial del Plata (SCP), Mauricio Macri will continue to fight for his reelection, but believes that Alberto Fernández will try in the same way to make the legacy less painful for which he should give signs of rationality allowing movements that the exchange rate and interest rates will have.

Regarding the formation of the next government, the owner of Morixe also believes that Alberto Fernández will support a "clbadical" Peronism composed of governors, trade unionists and legislators, leaving aside the power that the Cámpora can and wants to have. "According to who will prevail, we will have a government of the first stage of Nestor Kirchner or a populist deliorium," he warns.

In the real estate sector, it is estimated that, given the strength of the results, it will be impossible for Macri to reverse the October defeat. Therefore, they advise the government to start with a transition and dialogue with Alberto Fernández.

In this sense, Alejandro Ginevra hoped that a Kirchner government began a new style "far from the vices of the so-called crack that caused so much damage".

And he warned that the ruling party should take the first step in terms of dialogue, which has not happened so far.
In economic terms, for Ginevra, the main objectives should be to recover any exchange rate discrepancies and keep the exchange rate in line with inflation. "In addition, take care of the level of international reserves, lower interest rates and control the entry and exit of capital swallowed, adjust the program with the IMF."

For economic badyst Damián Di Pacce, we expect a dollar jump, but not at current levels, which reflects the negative reaction of the markets with respect to the future government. Alberto Fernández. "The dollar was expected to rise, but no one felt that this jump would also have a very strong impact on the price of products such as food, fuel and durable goods," warns the specialist.

He also thinks that, given the market reaction, the central bank is struggling to take action to lower the value of the US currency. "If they buy, it would be like giving up the reserves and complicating the situation of the payment of the country's obligations vis-à-vis external creditors and the IMF," adds Di Pacce, for whom this scenario would have a rapid impact. on retail and consumer prices. mbadive.

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