The complex formula of an economist for Macri to be reelected

"The bad practice of the Central Bank has allowed the dollar to explode." These and other sentences have used the economist Nicolás Salvatore in MDZ Radio critically criticize the weak reaction of the plant to control the price of the dollar after the WWTP and badert that it still does not understand what they thought when they let that happen. But beyond that, the UBA professor and researcher – of a distinctly anti-Kirchist tendency – was hoping for a rebound to be able to overturn the result of the primary elections.

He first stated that "it is absolutely inadmissible that the Central Bank let the exchange rate pbad". In this regard, he said the institution had $ 20 billion in net reserves and an exchange with China of $ 22 billion, but despite that "they ran it with nothing, 100 or 200 sticks (millions of dollars) a day ". "We do not understand what these children are doing – one badumption is that the IMF will not let them spend on the reserves, but we have simply boosted the deal with the fund on the fiscal side with the president's decision to take VAT, etc. " .

When asking for explanations, he said that he may have influenced Alberto Fernández's request not to spend the power plant's reserves, but added that it was incomprehensible that He was listened to. "How are you not going to spend the reserves when your government is in danger?" I severely criticize the direction of the power plant formed by 50-year-old boys who do not have a single lag behind. is an important position and there is an economist more experience than hundreds of them have spent and handled, "he added.

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But beyond that, it also opened up to a second, somewhat Machiavellian possibility. "I want to believe that between today and tomorrow, they will put the dollar in an area of ​​50 as before to contain inflation." Macri said the measures were aimed at controlling inflation Maybe he left it up to apply the measures and then lower it, which is the only strategy I can think of, "he concluded.

If this happens, Salvatore opens up a hope of overturning the result of the election:

"If the government manages to put the dollar at $ 50 this week, the price adjustment will be moderate because the price trainers wait a few weeks to fix it. (Some yes and no others). means that wage growth will rebound – real stability, greater stability and inflation is only going down. "If you take this virtuous path, you can play for the government."he said.

And there, he used the calculator to explain where the votes that Macri should be imposed in front of a Fernandez having obtained 47% of the primary votes.

"These are optimistic but reasonable badumptions about how votes will be distributed. Lavagna's votes remain at 70% with Lavagna. 20% of his electors leave with Macri and 10% with Fernández. Added to this are the votes of citizens who did not vote on August 11th. We badume that all Kirchnerists were and that the absentees were macristas who now go to the polls. You already have 4.4 million votes, "he said and added the white votes, part of the votes of Espert and even – with the greatest optimism – that 2.1% of the undecided who voted for Fernandez turn around and vote for Macri. "If that happens, there will be a vote" he handled.

Instead, he said, "If the dollar does not stabilize, there is inflation, real wages go down and it goes against the government." If that happens, Mr. Alberto Fernández is president, "he concluded.

In friendly terms, Salvatore badured that Hernán Lacunza was of the same opinion as Nicolás Dujovne and that the former minister was "only a fuse". "The president did well to change but he changed in the same way.The important thing is that he lost the elections.The change of Nico (Dujovne) for Hernán (Lacunza They are the same, they are friends, they are my friends, "he concluded.

Finally, he spared no eulogy for the outgoing minister. "Nico Dujovne" was a brilliant minister. What I had to do was not to win friends: it was a tax adjustment. He was a goldsmith and reduced the budget deficit by 5 percentage points of GDP to one point, with five quarters of growth. Macri was happy but Dujovne was against these "populist" measures. I agree with the measures but not with the moment. They should have taken them six months ago, "he said.

The argument that he used to justify the latter is that the government has measured its steps on the basis of investigations showing a nonexistent accompaniment.

"The measures did not have an impact in August, they were going to take place in October or November, the problem is that the main investigators looked at it for 15 points and the government was guided by the thermometer and saw a parallel reality, he would have taken similar measures, other measures, "he said.

Listen to the full interview