Dollar, inflation and IMF: the challenges of Lacunza

On his first day of management, Hernán Lacunza had the maximum to bring certainty to the markets. In this sense, it was his lecture yesterday, which had no place for questions but which was followed by that of the President of the Central Bank who ratified the established course.

Everything for the dollar

The high interest rate is maintained (nearly 75% per annum), the Treasury continues to strengthen the foreign exchange supply with 60 million dollars a day and the Central Bank intervenes, if necessary, with the sale currency. All this to keep the dollar in the margins $ 57 – $ 62, which were the storm tips from last week.

Although the central page has not yet changed its reference area, Lacunza again referred to the value of the dollar today in the radio statements: "We will not allow an irrational race, that is why reservations are used. There is no doubt that the current exchange rate is well above the equilibrium value. There is no reason to promote a currency hike ".

While the market is waiting for the meeting that the minister will have today with opposition economistssince yesterday, the exchange rate is calmer and the dollar remains close to 57 dollars. If there are volatilities, the plant intervenes with the millions it has allowed the Fund.

L & # 39; inflation

What is confirmed, it is the inflationary shock that occurred last week with the monetary storm which led to the exchange rate quoted at $ 65 in some private banks. The uncertainty of the first days of the week and the lack of a general reference price The social panic and even the inhabitants remained closed without knowing what price to put.

All that it will be reflected in the inflation indicators for August and October, something that the new finance minister and the president of the Central Bank badured. However, Beyond the measures announced last week by Macri, there is no new policy to avoid or mitigate these price increases.

MFIs

Beyond exchange rate stability, a necessary condition, the country faces a new mission from the IMF in the coming days and earn an income of more than 5.5 billion dollars. In this sense, Lacunza contacted representatives of the agency before taking a stand for confirm the validity of the plan and its commitment to demonstrate compliance with the budget objectives.

There are many doubts about the possibility of achieving these goals, taking into account measures announced last week by Macri and involving a cost of 59 986 million euros, which represents 0.3% of GDP.

"We will respect the annual directive.The agreement is still in effect, the IMF statement reflects this conversation," said the minister.

After the conference where Lacunza felt that, thanks to the increase in tax revenues, mainly due to an increase in tax collection, they would be able to absorb the new expenses while meeting the budget targets. This will be the result of the Fund's next audit of our economy with the entry, or not, of more than $ 5,500 million in September. to fulfill the payment commitments and terminate the Macri mandate without default.