The IMF arrives and a key instance of debt discussion opens

With the arrival of envoys from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we will begin today a discussion on the conditions under which Argentina must repay the credit requested by Mauricio Macri fault.

Led by the head of the mission, Roberto Cardarelli, the emissaries of the multilateral agency will officially initiate the fifth revision of public accounts and commitments made last year by the national government to receive $ 56.3 billion .

"The team will meet with the Argentine authorities to badyze recent economic and financial events and the government's political plans. The team will also meet the economic advisers of the main presidential candidates to hold an exchange of views, "said the spokesman of the Fund before consulting the media.

It is that everything has changed significantly since the last visit, at the end of May: the primary elections reconfigured the political scene, with the consolidation as the favorite of the presidential candidate of the Front of All, Alberto Fernández, and the liberation of a new financial cimbronazo that has aggravated the They block the Argentine economy.

With the new shake, the fears of another seize fault d & # 39; Argentina. This is why the country risk has doubled after the last elections and remains above 1,820 basis points, close to its maximum level since 2008.

In this new scenario, a shared diagnostic has been set up between the main sectors of the opposition to initiate a renegotiation process with the IMF. Even silently, the national government shares this position and that is why the new Minister of Finance, Hernán Lacunza, asked the Fund to delay the trip of their representatives by a few days.

Although Alberto Fernández himself took care to specify this week: "There is no possibility of fault"When he comes to the presidency, one of his economic advisers yesterday detailed the dimension of the big challenges of the debt front.

"The concentration of higher maturities refers to the loan with the Fund for the years 2022 and 2023," warned economist Cecilia Todesca Bocco.

That is, according to their calculations, during these years, it will be necessary to transfer to the organization amounts equivalent to 4 or 4.5 points of the gross domestic product (GDP). "It's impossible, you have to rearm it and I think you can do it with the IMF and discuss it. Then there is private debt, and badysts agree that private debt does not have an unattainable level, "he added.

Therefore, this time, the IMF will pay particular attention to the debt sustainability exercises (after the sharp devaluation of more than 20% in the past two weeks, which has increased the volume of dollar commitments) and alternative sources of finance that could be applied to renew private debt positions such as Treasury bills (Letes).

The final diagnosis of these variables will be decisive for the IMF's small board to approve the next September expense, which would amount to $ 5.4 billion. Then, the balance of the loan corresponds to 969 million shipments.

"While Macri is in government, he has to negotiate. But the Fund will want to have the consensus of Alberto Fernández and Roberto Lavagna, "said Héctor Torres, former representative of Argentina before the multilateral credit agency.

In this order of ideas, the economist Carlos Melconian said that "the agreement with the Fund must now be reviewed in the future" because he said that "the government has an agreement until the first half of 2021, which since January is no longer ". .

"The economy obviously played a role in the primaries. It was an alarm clock, not only for the moment, but also for the structure. Even if he had won the party in power, this period by December would be an economic transition, because everyone was wondering whether he was continuing with the same situation or whether there was a turning point, "he said. former president of Banco Nación.

Given this situation, the testimony of former Brazilian President Fernando Enrique Cardoso, who reminded Buenos Aires of the efforts he had made at the end of his second term, in 2002, to apply for an IMF loan with the support of the candidates to succeed him was relevant. including Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.