There are already friendly and case-by-case reperfilation exercises

These data will be decisive in determining whether, in the event of a repeat of the results of the 11 August In front of everybody It will have the ability to pay to meet the debt commitments from December.

The willingness to pay is indisputable, but in practice it will depend on the availability of resources. What is also a fact is that a possible presidency of Alberto Fernández categorically rejects a breach. "The default is not an issue," said the candidate and his entourage of economic advisers.

For that, The word that we hear most today about debt is "reperfilamiento". All, the official opposition and the most voted, insist, if need be, on the fact that the debt of Argentina is sustainable. In particular, Alberto Fernández emphasized that a potential government would respect the commitments made by the country.

The term "restructuring" is avoided. Perhaps because the other, derived from the English reprofilingIt seems less dramatic. It's probably just a semantic problem. This is at least what the head of the International Monetary Fund seemed to understand. Christine Lagarde while, amidst the Greek debt crisis and before granting the second financial bailout to that country, jointly with the European Central Bank and the European Commission, he said: "Put the name you prefer, but know that what we absolutely do not want is to hear about a fault."

In fact, there are differences. Because A voluntary restructuring involves some of these 3 alternatives, or a combination of these, in different proportions: withdrawal of capital, modification of the interest rate and extension of initial conditions. A reperfilamiento, in general, refers to the postponement of the engagements, without resorting to a size in the capital. Get more time for you to meet. Their common point is that one or the other of these variants is reached when a government is faced with a solvency problem that complicates the payment of principal and / or interest in accordance with the initial diet.

Today, technicians close to Fernández are accountable according to the monolithic principle that the commitments are respected. In other words, any hypothesis badumes that willingness to pay is absolute. What you will do will depend on your ability to pay. And it will depend on how the figures come in December.

This explains the obsession of technicians to closely monitor cash flow data, reserves and renewal letters in pesos and dollars. A test will take place this week: the Ministry of Finance will launch a call for tenders between tomorrow and Wednesday. letes for $ 1 billion and The cap$ 60,000 million to settle on Friday, the day on which the two papers will be due, for $ 1,550 million and $ 52,080 million, respectively. Two suggestive data: 1) reducing delays. In this auction, the placement of Lecap is 35 days and at Letes, the rewards will be split between one expiry on October 4 and another on January 17, 2020. 2) Short Letes can only be paid in dollars, while for January, the subscription in pesos is admitted for the first time.

There is some caution in the area where you drive Santiago Bausili, since very low renewal rate badumptions are processed on the market. They say that among private investors, there were virtually no stakeholders and that the provinces were mature enough to meet their obligations. L & # 39; single rolling updated is that of official bodies, such as the Sustainability Guarantee Fund for the development of ANSES (FGS).

The result of the auction is also of interest to the IMF mission which arrived in Buenos Aires on Saturday and plans to meet Fernández technicians today. Apart from the budget figures and the updated financial program badyzed over the weekend at the Palacio de Hacienda, it should also observe the sentiment of investment towards the country's debt.

This is not something innocuous. The return of the Fund's mission to Washington is convinced, for all candidates. The disbursement of the next tranche of the $ 5.4 billion loan, originally scheduled for mid-September, depends on this belief about the near future.

Maybe this will also influence the willingness to convert the program support in an extended facility contract (EFF). Something necessary and practical, regardless of the sign of the next government, since it spends from 4 to 10 years, with a grace period, repayment profile, in order to clear the financial horizon of next year. Of course, the IMF will need structural reforms (labor, taxation and social security), which no one can guarantee and implement today.

Fernandez's economists will closely follow the problem of Letters of liquidity from central banks (Leliq), whose stock currently stands at 1.29 billion pesos and is growing at a rate of 74.98% per annum. That's the equivalent of $ 23,500 million. It is unclear how this will be resolved, but they would have insisted on the need for the current administration to do so. They do not want to find a minefield if, in October, they repeat the percentages of August and that the election is defined in this case.

In this case, perhaps the same week after the elections, it is planned to travel to New York and Washington to meet with bankers, investment funds, and US government officials and representatives of the United States. Multilateral agencies.

For the moment, there are more unknowns than certainties. That's why the badumptions of reperfilation for sovereign debt. Little is known about these exercises. "There is still nothing," say some of the specialists working in the vicinity of Alberto. But what has happened so far is not trivial: 1) the defect is not a possibility, even at a distance; 2) in case of reperfilation, each title will be treated individually; 3) there will be no withdrawal of capital; 4) Any action will be agreed with the creditors.

These are definitions that should have, in one way or another, brought peace of mind to investors. However, they do not seem to have created credibility. There are still dissonant voices among the opponents for this horizon of greater sensitivity, which begins to germinate, to be admitted as valid.

This is reflected in the prices of dollar bonds, which were punished again on Friday and which closed the week with falls of up to 17%. Gustavo Neffa, director of FinGuru, explained the reason on Twitter: the links with the Argentine jurisdiction having no clauses of "cross fault"Or"clbad action", Its possible violation would not affect the rest of the titles, which would continue under the category"perform", That is to say without obstacle to pay the rent and depreciation coupons normally.