The qualifiers analyze whether they lower the rating of Argentina to selective defect

Official announcements have fallen like a bucket of cold water for bankers in New York. The decision to "reperfilar" the debt maturities of the coming years, even with a short-term pseudo-default by the letters in the hands of institutional investors (which, although they are 10%, have badets for 85% of the total ), the alarm lights woke up on Wednesday night.

Not only in the banks of Manhattan, but also in the rating agencies that must decide whether to lower the thumb of Argentina. As he knew Professional, the agencies in charge of monitoring the Argentine debt decide on the measures to be taken. That is, if Argentina is placed in what they call a "selective default" or a "standard deviation" for a short-term debt.

"We badyze the consequences of the decisions taken by the country.We will have more information shortly," said spokesmen for one of the three largest rating agencies in the world. Professional.

But it is undeniable that short letters will impose a penalty on agencies. Simply because what this contract says is changed unilaterally (it is paid by "installments" and not in time and form), which does not happen with the rest of the debt when Hernán Lacunza mentioned the case of "negotiations" to extend the deadlines.

"If anybody qualifies short-term bills, it will default them because there is a breach, not the case of long-term debt, they will put the so-called credit watch and will a statement stating that they are waiting for the offer.The rest should not affect the rating, even more because interest is still being paid, "he explained. Professional an important market source close to rating agencies.

Ambiguous feeling

"This is not good news for the market, but it is a reasonable measure." In the price of the bonds, this implied an inability to pay.Being done that, it's actually limiting the damage, "they explained. .

Seeing the glbad half full, they pointed out that Argentina could have the opportunity to "take care" of $ 8,000 million which are close deadlines that will serve the government or whoever wants to control the dollar. "But I do not think anyone will come to celebrate it, even though the prices warned that it was not viable," they said from a New York fund.

Diego Ferro, an Argentine economist who recently led a so-called "vulture fund" such as Greylock Capital (entered in the 2010 swap), launched his own fund, said Professional that the market reaction is "difficult to know, but I doubt very much".

From New York, he said the Mauricio Macri's government "has only little credibility". "Multilateral organizations have to accept an official proposal, the rest is unclear, unless you encourage a lot of exchange," he said, noting that if the country wanted to erase maturities of private bonds, he had to validate a very high interest rate. high (remember that country risk is 2100 points).

"The situation is very complicated, I do not think it's a bad idea in theory but, like a lot of what they've done, too little too late"condemned Ferro of Manhattan.

"It seems like a good initiative, but the problem is whether it's enough, we need to see the answer, theoretically, the government has done well, but I do not think it is meeting the objectives. will see several days of instability and nervousness, "added one of the major brokers in the United States.

For the market, the explicit non-support and this brief statement clearly indicate that no one was very convinced of the official announcement. Today, the markets will decide.

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