The market collapsed in August: stocks fell to 72% and bonds to 55%, while the dollar jumped 38% and country risk tripled



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The bag of Buenos Aires, meanwhile, accumulated a collapse of 41.5% in pesos and 57% in dollars.

Especially on August 12, a day after the OPS, the local square had one of its craziest wheels since the crises of 1989 and 2001, given the nervousness caused by the collapse of up to 59% of the Argentinian shares listed on Wall Street, by the collapse of 37.9% of the Buenos Aires stock market, by the loss of up to 32% of bonds and by the leap forward of the stock market. 23% of the dollar, in addition to the coup of 68.2% risk Argentine country.

Measured in dollars, the slippage suffered by the place that day was 48%. and became in the second largest in the history of all the world's markets, according to data from 94 countries compiled by Bloomberg over the past 70 years (it was only surpbaded by a 61.7% fall in the Sri Lankan stock market in 1989).

The local market and foreign investors they had bet on a very close difference between Macri and Fernández until Friday before the OSP – the day the Argentine shares had stolen – but It was exactly the opposite that surprised everyone: the gap between the two candidates in the election was overwhelming, with more than 16 percentage points.

But after STEP, the situation has worsened (beyond a small truce after a telephone conversation between President Mauricio Macri and opposition candidate Alberto Fernández): the Minister of Finance, Nicolás Dujovne, resigned; while the national government was forced to short-term debt reperfilarto propose a restructuring (without deletion) of medium and long-term bonds (will be discussed in Congress), and announced its intention to renegotiate the agreement with the IMF, which has not convinced investors , so that the collisions between Argentinian badets have deepened.

"It was a very complicated month, especially under the influence of politics in the financial", commented José Bano from invertironline.com.

The specialist explained that "despite the doubts that generated the election result, the capital left Argentina: shares, bonds were sold and investors do not want to incur new debts, as evidenced by the last two calls for tenders from Letes and Lecaps They want pesos and they go to the dollar.

In this context, companies listed on the main panel, S & P Merval, lost more than half of its market value: The local index recorded a 57% dollar loss, from $ 39,722 million on August 9 to $ 17,353 million at the last close.

In the Buenos Aires stock market, shares in the energy sector, such as Transportadora Gas del Norte (-68.2%), recorded the largest declines of the month. Transener (-63.2%); Edenor (-59%); Puerto Central (-58%) and Grupo Financiero Galicia (-57.3%). Only Aluar closed on a positive note with an increase of 18.6% in August.

"There has been a mbadive destruction of value brought on by a blind liquidation of foreign fund positions, the epicenter of the banking and energy sectors being the most liquid roles," said the economist. Gustavo Ber in dialogue with Scope.

On the other hand, among the Argentine ADRs, the largest losses were recorded by Edenor (-72%); Galicia (-70%); and the center of Puerto (-69.8%).

Eduardo Fernández of Rava Stock Market pointed out that the "deterioration" of local badets has advanced "because of the great uncertainty in the country as to the political and economic situation".

Country risk and obligations

In the fixed income sector, bonds, dollar and peso tranches, experienced an average decline of 55% for both tranches during the month, with no positive change. highlighted the report of the SBS group.

"The sovereign bond market has collapsed, especially the part that lasted less than 4. This week, the drop was between 20% and 30%, while it dropped by 55%. % on average over the month " coincided from the personal portfolio.

The poor performance of bonds led to a sharp rise in country risk which closed this Friday in 2,532 points, with an advance in the month of 223%.

"In order to achieve macrofinancial stability, the government has chosen to address its short-term liquidity problem with a debt maturity in line with expectations, which was offset by a sharp fall in the stock market since PASO and total deterioration. of Argentine Investor Confidence ", badyzed the president of the Latin American Investment Center (Celai), Sergio Morales.

The financial specialist stressed "that it is no longer possible for the ruling party to restore confidence by itself, but requires a" gentlemen's agreement "with opposition for , regardless of the candidate elected in October, a program underlying economic problems, and thus relieves both the country risk and pressure on the exchange rate.

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