Between devaluations and leaks | The bubble of the country …

The government's economic program encouraged speculative investment, removed control mechanisms, deregulated at unique levels around the world. It has generated various instruments allowing investors to earn exorbitant profits in the shortest possible time: Argentina, the most environmentally friendly country on the planet. The bubble should burst one day, perhaps the least bit. This happened even though there was no missing alert,

In early August, capital flight was a record, recession and inflation, an old custom. Faced with the threat, "the feeling of democracy" blew the bubble. This journal, a dozen studious economists and thinkers, had been anticipating it for years. The swallow capitals fly away when he paints them, he is inscribed in his nature.

From Casa Rosada, led by President Mauricio Macri, they are trying to impose a booklet and act on Alberto Fernández. Close what you have always thought about, what you have been defending for years and in the Open Primary Campaign (STEP). You can only break the silence to approve the official actions.

A bill is prepared, there are those who explain that the small print is still unknown. It's a euphemism: the text that was to arrive at Congress on Friday is unknown and, in any of these, arrives tomorrow. Fernández is under pressure to guarantee it, to guarantee the support of Frente de Todos (FT) in Congress. Less than a closed book because the pages are still blank.

A word from the presidential opponent – denouncing or shouting officials and related observers – can bring down the economic model. Worse still: the verb of "Alberto" generates the realities that it enunciates. If I said "default", there would be a default, if I spoke of a power vacuum, Macri would lose the enormous legitimacy of the exercise that he still has … or do not have it. Did he not leave?
The problem is that other voices resonate. The most serious complaints against Macri and the economic team come from their environment, their former allies, campaign sponsors, spokespersons. Risk rating agencies leased by the government yesterday announced different default variants.

The businessman Claudio Belocopitt. Swiss owner of medicine, protest against the postponement of the payment of several public titles a few hours after the press conference of the Minister of Finance, Hernán Lacunza. He explains that these sums are used to avoid liquefying working capital. If the state unilaterally sells the liquidation (breach of contract in Creole, name it in English or jargon), your company will, among other things, no way to pay wages. Another reduction of the payment chain is envisaged. We emphasize "other" because they are the rule in too many markets. Belocopitt increpa to macrismo, he is responsible for the "string that was chorale". He speaks in his own name and not from the seat of the party justicialiste.

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Plan A, as a project: Lacunza announces the measures that are badyzed by specialized colleagues of this newspaper. They are retouched as critics jump because incongruities are detected. In the Argentine reality, Plan B does not often exist during the launch of Plan A. Worse still, Plan A is generally announced without having written it completely. With a vulnerable project in a context of panic, the expert recommends to declare the exchange holidays. Macri refuses, ignoring the advice on his own and the opposition. At this stage of the review, this chronicler stops trying to explain the irresponsible behavior that is so harmful to the Argentineans as to the credibility of the government.

Cases of renegotiation with private creditors regarding depreciated obligations up to insignificance allow any Argentine pbadively informed to imagine speculative maneuvers. The vultures are floating again on the Argentine debt.

It takes dollars, the big exporters of agricultural products keep the ones they received for the record harvest. They speculated with a maximum devaluation, they had … they continue to tie knots. The president meets the liaison office, posts, jokes and complices about SENASA. Since his arrival at Casa Rosada, he has repealed the rules imposing deadlines for the liquidation of currencies. You can not think of the evidence: relocate them. He does not even dare to claim it as a "gaucho" in public.
Agricultural employers visit the offices of Alberto Fernández. They maintain a constructive and friendly dialogue on both sides of the table. The candidate, in a manner as courteous as firm, explains that in the current situation, it is impossible to reduce the retentions. And, if it reaches La Rosada, the currencies that go into exports must be exchanged for pesos as soon as possible. Customers are in agreement, do not dispute. The head of Coninagro, Carlos Iannizzotti, went further by baduming a tax duty of solidarity with the most punished Argentineans.
The comparison between the two conclaves compels one conclusion: Macri gives the "field" more than he asks. As for the majority of the Argentine people, they proceed in the opposite direction.

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Other birds: Let's go back to political ornithology, we promise it for the last time in this column. The ruling party releases hawks and pigeons to cooperate with the FT. Macri has a hawk pole and another amateur, depending on when or the state of his sleep. Elisa Carrió at the head of the hard wing. Injurian to Kirchner or the candidate, denounces without proof that there had been fraud three weeks ago and in 2007! He accuses the narco of favoring Fernández, former officials who ravaged the country join this defamatory nonsense.

In parallel, Macri talks with Fernández many times, more than those disclosed. Lacunza asks Luis Caputo, who carries an olive branch and continues "Alberto": they have known each other for a while. "Toto" – the supposed Messi of the financial world who turned out to be a kick "B" – becomes a sort of Samore profane Cardinal. Fernández receives him, he transmits that he can not co-govern, join the virtual transactions of re-inflation of the debt with the IMF, adhere to the policy of a government of the opposite sign without doing any harm. 39; stories.

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Human memory: Lacunza promises humans that they will be able to withdraw the money invested in the agreed time and form. Implementation is less convincing than speech. The decrees do not mention the placement of people in investment funds. Banks and financial companies are suspending their activities. The fault is corrected while the doubts are reinforced.

The day before yesterday, branches of several banks refused to return the dollars deposited in the savings banks or kicked them on Tuesday or Wednesday. Lacunza would say that it is "casuistic": examples not quantified or reported officially. But ordinary people have memories, personal experiences, reflections in similar situations. The one who burned with Cavallo sees a Lacunza and cries.

It is worth reading a brand-new, remarkably well-written and well-written book by Mariana Luzzi and Ariel Wilkis: "The Dollar, an Argentinian Money".

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Intermittent Macroism: Macri seems not to notice that he is naked, almost no one believes him. The radical co-religionists and the PRO cohorts radiate it from their campaigns, the intestinal quarrels grow like a plague.

The Argentinean society is undergoing months of slinging under a ugly government that is going through its worst moment.

The FT crosses a gorge: do not destabilize, do not be fooled by the decision, keep thinking about building a future.

The IMF, in turn, faces a major challenge. The resignation of Nicolás Dujovne, formerly the biggest olfactor of Christine Lagarde, leaves the IMF without the usual interlocutor. The government emits the nth sign of weakness and entropy.

The disbursement targets of the famous $ 5.4 billion are to be seen. If the decision depended on the software, the money would never come, explain experts of various ideologies. But there is politics at stake, not everything is algorithms in life.

The bureaucracy of the international organization slows down the decisions and the execution. He pays regularly late; Under normal circumstances, the mere announcement of approval calmed the waters. In a system that is deteriorating day by day, every minute of delay hurts.

Trust Would the IMF buy a used car in Macri? The acts themselves expose the party in power, not the statements of Alberto Fernández.

Will the emissaries or their superiors watch Macri's anger, their propensity to cry in any circumstance, the boost that the first lady, Juliana Awada, sends to a crowd that encourages them? You can not help thinking about or questioning the Argentine Baroque electoral system.

The Fund risks a fortune, its reputation, it needs a counterpart to the height. Macri and its surroundings recriminate the "rest of the world" while the soil is perhaps (or surely) sawn. Would the Fund buy a used car in Macri in September 2019? The acts themselves expose the party in power, not the statements of Alberto Fernández.

The crisis infects the IMF, they all look at US President Donald Trump, who has failed as a Greenland buyer, but keeps his thumb to lift it or steer it down.

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Frozen in the palace: Lacunza explains didactically, even inexplicably. He looks tired, haggard; In a report, he says that he works 20 hours a day. It stands out from the archetypes of PRO officials who boasted of dressing "casual" on Fridays, ending work days early in the afternoon.

Compared to Dujovne, his successor seems to be a mix of Demosthenes and Adam Smith. And, the nobility forces, he stayed to support the tsunami while "Nico" was fleeing. In any case, he is an official PRO: he lies, he manipulates data, he hides. He claims the trade surplus. Alcadio Oña, economic chronicler of ClarinHe had written a day earlier: "This surplus is in principle a pure recession, a 26.8% drop in imports … a result grabbed by pins that can disappear as soon as the economy recovers. ". We add that the team wanted to use the recession as a way to reduce inflation … the evil tactics failed and aggravated both evils.

The macro experts fantasized about a campaign without talking about the economy. They took absurd themes from the galley for weeks to hide the main contradiction. Fernández found the right moment to counter retirees against LELIQ. Then, daily reality imposed the agenda.

For the FT, it would be ideal to live serenely and that nothing makes waves, arrive serenely on October 27, sitting in the verdict without appeal of the OSP. Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner defend governance. By conviction, because they have always acted like that. And because they controlled it, they would try against their own interests.

Fernandez will go to Spain and Portugal for a week. He will teach and meet Spanish President Pedro Sánchez and Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Cósta. Two social democrats who survive almost like islands in a North populated by right-wing leaders, intolerant, schematic, violent, almost all racist, mostly indestructible.

The main opposition candidate works with technical teams. Try to inform a new government system, not just a ministerial law. He preaches the end of imperfect doctrine Irurzun: that judicial persecutions and prisons cease without condemning the political opponent. The Supreme Court – thinks this chronicler – should move a file, a sentence implicating or condemning to death this legality. This would contribute to the coexistence and restoration of the political system.

Macri and his opponents are moved by the mobilizations in their favor. These are not the first mbad movements in favor of the right in the autonomous city. The crowd lived the fake engineer Blumberg in 2004, cacerolearon of the beautiful thing in the following years by "the ground", against Kirchnerism, in favor of Macri. Occupy the public space is legal and boosts democracy. Deduct that one or ten acts "bind" the referendum to the polls, is the responsibility of the macro-imagery likely to engage in the microclimate of the palace, in the consanguinity talks.

A crowd embodying another social sector asked for the implementation of the food emergency. Demand more pressing than negotiations with financial creditors who take "naturally" months. The social pastoral of the Catholic Church and Roberto Lavagna make similar demands.
Let us reformulate forever a selfish and pre-Lacanian saying: one is the owner of what he says and the slave of what is silent. What silence Macri and Lacunza describe them as much or more than what they say. The president, said the minister, asked him to take care of the Argentines by focusing on dollars, the financial center, without dealing with urgently needed needs, hunger, school canteens or private solidarity .

The financial subsystem is for Macri and his team "the world". Millions of ordinary people think differently, they believe they have rights, the controversy has moved into the dark room.

The transit around October gives the impression of being eternal. The temperance of the people and the opposition contradicts the lack of official control. Impressive, distress, lack of wrist and paranoia of a president who never looks into the mirror, a prerequisite for detecting the main culprits of the economic, social and labor disaster.

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