Dollar at $ 62 and record loss in August

It was a black Friday, "with rumors of all kinds" on the market, operators said. The country risk stood at 2,533 points, its highest level since June 2005, when the country faced a restructuring of its debt that was in default. At the end of last month, this threshold was 784 points.

The retail sales dollar closed a new record of $ 62.03, based on the average of central bankdespite the artillery deployed by the entity. He sacrificed reserves for US $ 387 million, traded on the futures market, and there was the sale of foreign currency to "friendly" banks. In addition, it validated an increase in the monetary reference rate resulting from Leliq which represents an average of 83.26%, also reaching a record since the beginning, on October 1, 2018, of the new monetary restraint plan.

The stock of gross reserves of BCRA closed at US $ 54,098 million, showing yesterday a decline of US $ 1,943 million and an accumulation of US $ 13,800 million during the month.

The largest drainage was verified after the overwhelming official defeat of the PASS, for US $ 12,200 million, of which US $ 2,038 million from the sale of BCRA reserves on the foreign exchange market, the balance of payments debt and outflows of foreign currency deposits. dollars

Frenzy It was a week of fever that operators attributed to the "end of the truce" and the agreement of the president. Mauricio Macri and candidate of Frente de Todos, Alberto FernandezTo try to maintain currency stability. In SBS, they summed up: "It all started with the weekend protests in favor of the government and the hard letter issued by Front of the World candidate, Alberto Fernández, very critical of the IMF and policies implemented in Argentina. This withdrawal has heightened doubts about the upcoming disbursement of the IMF "and" everything collapsed on Wednesday when the call for tenders relating to treasury bills was canceled, which led the government at announce a rebalancing of the debt and a deferral of payments corresponding to treasury bills in the hands of institutional investors ".

In this context of huge financial volatility and uncertainty, the retail dollar closed the last wheel of the month at $ 62.03, implying an increase of 37.80% or $ 17.02 in August. In the wholesale segment, the currency ended at $ 59.51, up $ 15.63 over the month. "This is the highest monthly change since December 2015. Over the course of the year, the dollar has increased by 57.85%," he said. Gustavo Quintana, from Pr Changes. The operator said that "next Monday is a holiday in the United States, so local operations will be significantly reduced."

Why do the markets post Macri and Alberto Fernández?

In this context, the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange grew by 2.6% in opportunity purchases, but in August, it recorded the largest monthly decline in its history, recording a decline of 41.7% in pesos and 56% in dollars. Local stocks listed on Wall Street collapsed up to 9%.

The energy and banking roles were the most punished. Eduardo Fernandez, from Rava Bursatile, said: "The BCRA has decided to force banks to generate profits abroad, and ADRs, which were already mediocre, have accelerated the deterioration." Bonds have fallen sharply. The AO20 dropped 6.38%.

Deposit production increases

From the Government announcement of debt re-acceleration has accelerated withdrawal of dollar deposits. A market source commented PROFILE that "over the past three days, banks have lost 5% of their deposits in dollars". Similarly, sources in the financial system have admitted that "with every explosive political statement, people withdraw their savings, while physical tickets take a long time to reach branches, especially in the interior. ". However, sources pointed out that financial institutions have a high level of liquidity.

The stock of dollar deposits is one of the variables that the government has been monitoring since the defeat it suffered in the primaries. In the private sector, on Friday August 9, before the OSP, it reached $ 32.501 million. According to data from the Central Bank, as of Tuesday, August 27, the latest official data available, this level has been reduced to $ 28 990 million. During this period, the withdrawal of these dollar investments from the private sector amounted to US $ 3,511 million.

Lacunza will go to Congress to explain the government's plan for debt

Since the monetary entity's reserves over the past week have fallen by 4 161 million US dollars, the drip should continue over the next few days. These numbers can only be verified next week on the BCRA website.

Foreign currency deposits rose from a record level in July. They had reached 32,578 million US dollars. The financier Christian ButeleHe pointed out that "since STEP until today, all deposits that had developed during the year have been lost".