Gerardo Caetano: "The failure of Macri has a lot of impact …

A version on Uruguay says that it is a country that avoids crack, a "small country", as Mario Benedetti called it, calm and predictable. But this campaign on the way to the elections of October 27 goes through tumultuous waters and there is even talk of a bolonarist axis led by the former commander of the army, Guido Manini Ríos.

The Frente Amplio (FA) is committed to continuing the center-left project that has been in government for 15 years, with the candidate Daniel Martínez leading the poll, with about 30% of the votes cast, at 5 points from the curator Luis Lacalle Pou. the national party (white), a margin that is in itself a complicated scenario for the official coalition. The liberal economist Ernesto Talvi, Colorado party candidate, would get about 15% of the votes and the Cabildo Open, from the far right, Manini Ríos, about 10%. Faced with a ballot, the FA would have three rights, if not four.

The historian and political scientist Gerardo Caetano says that Manini Ríos is a black swan of this campaign, a small Uruguayan phenomenon. In this interview with Page / 12, said the professor at the University of the Republic, Open Cabido "appeared on the right of the parties Blanco and Colorado: it is an extreme right-wing formation to the vision Bolonarist, led by a soldier with a historic family name. Guido's grandfather, Pedro Manini Ríos, broke with José Batlle and Ordonez in 1913 under the saying "we are red, not socialist". Guido's brother, Hugo Manini Ríos, was in the sixties the founder of Juárez Uruguaya de Pie, a far-right party linked to the paramilitaries. "

– Who constitutes "the bolonarist axis"?

– Manini Ríos, Juan Sartori and Edgardo Novick. Juan Sartori is another black swan, an outsider of the National Party, who has never voted in Uruguay, left at age 15 and is now back to the discovery of politics. Sartori came second to the white trainee and has a list in the Senate. The Novick businessman of the People's Party (N: A intends to vote 2%) celebrated the victory of Bolsonaro in Brazil.

– In March, President Tabaré Vázquez fired the head of the army, Guido Manini Ríos, for challenging the action of justice in human rights violations cases. military.

– He is a commander who has constantly transgressed the institutional regime and caused criticism within the Frente Amplio, since he was appointed by the then Minister of Defense, Eleuterio Fernández Huidobro, former tupamaro. The Uruguayan army is reluctant to badume its responsibilities of the dictatorial past, with a pact of silence. At the same time, he refuses to reform military privileges retreats.

Today, Cabildo Open has a voting intention of 9%, ie 3 senators and 10 deputies; This is the key to the next government, which will not have a majority in Congress. The electoral scenario of the Frente Amplio is complicated: the polls do not give it a legislative majority, it will not count 50% of the seats plus one of the seats of both chambers. The opposition will get the majority, but the liberal Talvi said he would not form a government with Manini Ríos or Novick. Lacalle Pou would make a multicolored coalition with the far right.

– Is Ernesto Talvi looking for a more moderate profile?

– He's a man who for 20 years led a tough liberal think tank, CERES. He has a clearly neoliberal past. Two years ago, he entered politics. He adopted a more batllista speech, in the center, within the Colorado party. So compete with the disenchanted voters of the FA.

– Why the dissatisfaction of a sector that voted for the Frente Amplio?

– This last government was not transformative, but it had the merit of maintaining a certain autonomy in the face of a situation of economic slowdown in the world and of a brutal recession in the region. Economic times do not correspond to political times. We have an unemployment rate of 10%, a low investment, a budget deficit of 4.7%, controlled inflation; This has generated a different economic situation from the past 15 years.

In 2004, GDP grew to $ 15 billion and today to $ 60 billion, equivalent to 16 years of uninterrupted growth and an increase in real wages of more than 55%. Poverty was 40% in 2002, today it is 8%. Think about the impact of the Argentine crisis in Uruguay, where 60% of the tourism is Argentinian.

– What impact on the elections of the defeat of Uruguay within the OSP Mauricio Macri?

– The failure of Macri had a considerable impact on the Uruguayan opposition, virtually without exception. When Macri won the presidential and then legislative elections, they made a uniform and non-critical membership. Macri looked like the future and now they are trying to badociate him with the Broad Front government, which is difficult. Macri, after the defeat, wanted to point out that this drift of the dollar, the fall of Argentine bonds, this irresistible situation is caused by the vote. He wants to discipline citizens and penalize them because they were not right.

– The plebiscite voted on October 27 promoted by Senator White Jorge Larrañaga proposes a constitutional reform so that justice can authorize night raids; configuration of the National Guard of up to 2000 men, which would imply the presence of military personnel in the streets; and increased penalties (life imprisonment for serious crimes). Can you win?

– The trends were favorable, but the trend is downward. Larrañaga led alone. This was perceived as a drowning blow since he lost the internal election of the National Party. It is interesting to note that the far right military party does not support, because the army does not have to involve itself in homeland security. But in his extremist proposals, he offers serene nocturnal patrols consisting of retired officers and police officers licensed to carry weapons. The hypothesis in Argentina of an intervention of the army is unachievable. In Uruguay, we have an army that has not changed its visions of dictatorship, especially in its dome, and resists any revision of its privileges. Guido Manini Ríos maintains direct links with the armed forces. Very disturbing.

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