Due to the exchange rate gap and falling dollars, the market is expecting more controls

With the advent of exchange controls, a market parallel to the official dollar was reborn in the last week.

This is the so-called Cash With Clearance Dollar (CCL), a legal mechanism to acquire green dollar notes through the purchase and sale of bonds or sharesand the accreditation is done on an account abroad. It is an instrument to which, for example, businesses can no longer buy.

During the first week of restrictions, the gap between the official dollar value and the CDC was around 10%, although it increased by 15% over Friday's closing. operators predict that in the coming weeks it will climb.

It depends on the level, it can become a problem. In parallel, The withdrawal of dollar deposits, although the rate slowed slightly, had an impact on reserves.

Since OSPO's official defeat, reserve fund reserves have totaled $ 15.3 billion and the stock of private-sector US dollar deposits has fallen by $ 8.330 million. In this scenario, Analysts suggest that the gap with the CCL and the drainage deposits are the two key variables to watch for in the coming weeks. and warn that they could lead to a hardening of stocks.

To what extent is the gap between the official dollar and the CCL tolerable and when can it generate inflationary pressures and devaluations? Mauro Mazza of Bull Market Brokers told Profile that with the current exchange control ", you can keep a gap of up to 20%, but if time pbades and stays above 20%, additional restrictions will be necessarywith 50%, you are on the brink and if the critical level is 75 or 80%, you must make informed decisions. "

For the badyst, there is a risk of reaching this level "end of December or first half of January". According to his vision, the controls "will not only be extended but we could go to a total stock".

Financial Christian Buteler He warned that "you can widen the gap" of the CCL dollar because it will be used a lot by the exporting company. " He notes that "in times of strong liquidation of exports, the company bills and I do not think it stays in pesos in the country, it will turn around and use the CDL to dollarize its property." Buteler said that "although it is operations between private companies and that the BCRA does not lose reserves, the problem of gap widens, c & # 39; is that it becomes the benchmark dollar of the economy, that some prices will fluctuate according to this dollar and not to the officer, because the reference is always the one that is negotiated the most, or the more free. "

For Diego Martínez Burzaco, of MB Inversiones, the current gap "is reasonable because everyone can use this market without restrictions", but "to the extent that it develops and generates inflation expectations or official exchange rate expectations, there will surely be a limitation."

Diego Falcone of Cohen SA told Profile that it is "likely that the gap is widening, with Kirchnerism we initially had between 10% and 15% and then it had increased to 70%, I do not think that during the Macri government we have such a high margin. "However, he sees" a BCRA lifting a little restrictions, once this first step, but this control has come hard, I have trouble regaining confidence. "

Norberto Sosa, of Investing in the Stock Exchange, said that "with a favorable international scenario this week, the gap was set in a 10% floor," a level that "does not generate noise ", and considered that "it is inexorable that the next week is slowly expanding".

The badyst said that "when the gap is already approaching 50%, it results in a devaluation of the pressure on the official exchange rate ". In this sense, he recalled that "in Argentina, there were peaks – as in 2013, the official exchange rate was $ 5 and the cash settlement of more than 9 dollars, a gap of almost 100%, while the gap is already so big that there is a devaluation like in early 2014 ".

Sosa also warned that "the issue of dollar deposits is the Achilles' heel". He believes that with the current scenario of uncertainty, the trend towards dollarization will continue. In this context, he stated that "more than transient controls, it seems that they will deepen over time".

The badyst said that "in the very short term, which affects the most reserves, it is the movement of deposits, but in the future, in September and October, the big problem is whether the IMF money will be paid, if this happens, you can fill in a little gap, if you can not go to 50%. "

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