Key week for "stocks" in the resumption of the political campaign

The weekend officially started the campaign for the October 27 general election.

More than ever, the measures taken by the two most likely candidates (Alberto Fernández and Mauricio Macri) will be decisive in an extremely fragile and unstable economy.

The measures taken by the national government to reorient the crisis, mainly the exchange restrictions communicated on 1 September, will be put to the test with the campaign launched, after a week in which the truce still prevailed after the pbadage of the month of August.

To the complications due to the lack of reliable confirmation from the IMF regarding a key disbursement of $ 5,400 million to be tabled this month, it is added that the President and Fernandez, the most voted candidate to the primaries, are already in full offer by the votes of October.

Last week, macroeconomic variables reacted with some stability to the "values" imposed by the new finance minister, Hernán Lacunza.

The dollar remained stable – between 57 and 58 pesos – and the country risk dropped by 505 basis points to end Friday at 2,029.

The average rate of fixed-term contracts ranged from 56% to 57%, and those of Leliq were limited to 85%.

What worries most is the drop in Central Bank reserves, which, although it slowed after a last week of August "black" (had fallen by 4 161 million dollars), has continued to fall to an average of $ 400 million a day, according to the same source. official data until Wednesday, September 4.

The volume of foreign currency term deposits in banks also continued to decline. The monthly $ 10,000 extraction limit for "human persons" did not prevent the $ 832 million that savers withdrew between Monday and Wednesday.

The amounts were going down over the days, but they are still very high for an economy that has more dollars.

Do not forget that within 14 working days after the stage, the stock Foreign currency deposits in the private sector fell by 20%.

Dollar and inflation

As candidates begin to move towards general elections, attention will be focused on how macroeconomics will evolve, with the dollar as an anchor to contain inflation.

A sustained exchange rate thanks to "stocks" and interest rates for clouds will not solve the fundamental problems (the government recognizes this), but it should help the September and September inflation rates. October to not break records.

On Thursday, Indec will release the August price index, indicating that it will be about 4%. This is what the province of Córdoba estimates from its latest monthly collection report.

Today and tomorrow, we will have data on the volume of reserves and the change in dollar deposits in the banks corresponding to Thursday and Friday of last week (the BCRA publishes these values ​​with a delay of 48 working hours) . It is considered that there has been a decline, but it is worth asking whether this decline has slowed down, which would indicate a favorable change in trend and encourage a stabilization process.

Otherwise, economic badysts understand that "stocks" could be strengthened, strengthening it by further limiting the maximum monthly extraction volume.

An encouraging fact: the last two days of last week, the bankers agreed, there were fewer people in the banks.

The Merval also climbed Friday and scored three consecutive wins after the collapse of previous days. We must see how this continues today.