"It was a failure and not because of the legacy" | Vast of …

Former Central Bank President Federico Sturzenegger has published a detailed document explaining why the economic plan of Mauricio Macri's government had failed. With a 58-sheet document, published in an American institute, he concludes that the "bad results" are not due to the inheritance received, nor to external factors, but to the economic policies that have been adopted. In addition, it has been very critical of the lack of a more severe fiscal adjustment, resulting in excessive short-term debt. But above all, he ruled, as of December 28, 2017, the day the inflation targets were changed, such as the date on which credibility was lost and the disaster that began, which continues still today.

The paper, titled "Macri's Macro: The Winding Path Leading to Stability and Growth," presents the president as a person who wanted to change the country after "long decades of decline." He said that if he had not won the elections in 2015, the country was getting close to an "authoritarian and populist leftist regime", and wrote that the triumph was like the struggle of David vs. Goliath, since Cambie beat "an aggressive mechanism". .

In the first few pages, Sturzenegger exposed the expected results and compared it to what actually happened. They expected economic growth of 3% per year, while in 4 years it only developed in 2017 and experienced a serious recession the other three years. As for inflation, they expected 5% this year, against 55% for the latest forecasts. With regard to the exchange rate, they estimated that this year could be 17 pesos, while it is currently 58 pesos. "By the end of the Macri presidency, GDP will have fallen by 3.4% and inflation by 250%, one of the highest in the world. No one can avoid a sense of frustration, "wrote the former president of the Centrale.

Why the causes of this deterioration? Sturzenegger badured that this had nothing to do with the inheritance received. He described two problems as positive in 2015: "The current account deficit was not so important" and the low level of debt due to "debt restructuring in 2005 and economic growth ". On a graph, it shows that debt with the private sector in 2015 was equal to 40% of GDP, while it stood at 67% for 2018. In this sense, the paper concludes that the deterioration Macroeconomic has nothing to do with the inheritance received: "Although the inheritance is not ideal, it can not be held responsible for the results. In the end, the fault lies in the policies that have been decided. "

In this sense, Sturzenegger was very critical of the elections in terms of fiscal policy and "procasting" with the deficit, which led to indebtedness to finance this progressivism. "The weakness of fiscal policy has forced changes in inflation targets, which has determined the lack of credibility of the overall program. Fiscal convergence only occurred in 2019, when forced events led the government to make major adjustments, "wrote the former head of the BCRA. In addition, he said the budget deficit in the first three years of government was financed by short-term debt, which created "substantial vulnerabilities". He blamed the government 's political wing for this decision: "The reduction in the budget deficit had to be gradual, because the Macri government was ashamed to make an excellent fiscal and monetary adjustment because it was a matter of money. a center-right party. The argument was that gradualism could put a lot of debt into debt but would provide political support. "

He was particularly critical in the so-called 28D, that is to say on December 28, 2017, when inflation targets were changed at a press conference shared by Sturzenegger with Marcos Peña, Nicolás Dujovne and Luis Caputo. The main explanations. He said that it was a "bizarre turn" and that that day had begun the uncertainty surrounding the economic program and the possibility that Argentina renews its debt, so the market " loses credibility "to the government and institutions the lack of independence of the central bank. "The president decided to fire the head of the central bank if it had to go ahead," said Sturzenegger.

The paper presents Sturzenegger as a professor at the University of San Andrés and a consultant for the Latus View investment fund. In thanks, the former head of the Centrale reminds Mauricio Macri, Daniel Artana and Domingo Cavallo, among others.