How many attacks in Saudi Arabia could increase naphtha

The price of liquid fuels at suppliers throughout the country is frozen at the value they had at August 9, before the Paso and the devaluation that led to the exchange rate of 58 pesos.

This decision taken by the national government was part of the measures to prevent inflation from soaring In the rest of the year. Especially before the October 27 general election. Other strategies envisaged include the suspension of VAT on certain products in the basic basket, a bonus for the national state and the increase of the floor for the payment of gains.

For contain the increase of naphtha and diesel In the domestic market, the Ministry of Energy has set the two prices that most affect the value of the supplier: the barrel of oil and the dollar.

Al Barrel (the variety "Brent", used as parameter in Argentina) fixed it at 59 dollars and the exchange rate at 49.50 pesos.

In addition, postponed the application of internal taxes which taxes the sale of liquid fuels.

Until last week, the dollar was the main source of pressure on the price of gasoline. After surpbading 62 pesos, it stabilized around 56 pesos for the wholesale market, or 13% more than it recognizes them. the government to the oil companies to calculate the sales value.

Until then, from the petroleum sector and service stations, they calculated that the price That was behind about 17%. This, not to mention the tax adjustment.

However, a fact occurred this weekend at 12,000 kilometers from Buenos Aires generates even more pressure: an attack on two of the major light crude oil processing plants and extra light from Saudi Arabia.

Punctually, this is a series of drone attacks that destroyed half of the oil capacity Saudi Aramco, the Saudi public company, Saturday, September 14. country that produces 10% of all the world's crude.

This global supply reduction of 5% overnight and, therefore, The price of crude oil has skyrocketed.

The Brent came to quote this Monday at 69 dollars, then down to 68, still well above the 60 days he had closed Friday.

This, in the freeze scenario, is a big problem that the government will have to solve because of the increased pressure from oil companies dedicated to light crude oil, because they sell almost all of their production on the domestic market (Shell , Exxon, Chevron, Pluspetrol, among others).

The others, those who export a lot of heavy crude, like American Energy, for example, benefit from higher prices.

It's not clear how much more than 17% gasoline (due to the dollar effect) could now increase if they were thawed in this new scenario with Brent at nearly $ 70.

Sources close to retail sales estimate that as much as 8%, in addition to the impact of the exchange rate.

Variables in play

Keep in mind that fuel prices increase essentially according to two variables: oil and the exchange rate, which together account for 80% of value, before taxes.

In addition, the price of biofuels affects the fact that refineries are forced to reduce diesel to 10% biodiesel and gasoline to 12% bioethanol. For now, the government has also frozen that impact.

In short, without taxes (which increase every quarter with inflation), with this dollar and this price of crude, the delay would not be less than 25%.

As for taxes, a percentage of the June adjustment (which was to have an impact in August but was postponed) and the whole of September, of which nothing has yet been transferred, must be applied.

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