Dollar, inflation and who they want at the Ministry of the Economy: the survey of entrepreneurs for 2020

An inquiry measured the perceptions of Argentine affairs on macro management and their expectations on the evolution of the economy, the dollar, inflation and foreign policy. Bad news for the president: the majority felt that the current government's poor economic policy practice was more relevant than the inheritance received.

The study also had an unexpected result: the name of Roberto Lavagna he rose above the other dancers to occupy the position of Minister of the Economy in the future national government and Maria Eugenia Vidal as the best presidential candidate for 2023.

The investigation of the IAE Business School To the 100 people who develop in the business world, he has placed the presidential candidate of the federal consensus at the top of the personalities who seem to occupy the most important role in the Argentine economy. Even those who sound in the environment of the main opponent, Alberto Fernández.

Thus, the former minister of Eduardo Duhalde and Nestor Kirchner won 35% of the vote, followed by Guillermo Nielsen (25%), Martín Redrado (15%), Matías Kulfas (6%) and Emmanuel Álvarez Agis (4%). ).

"It is natural that Lavagna should appear as a preferred candidate. His management with Nestor Kirchner's good performance and his status as a statesman weigh heavily. In this survey, the businessmen consulted prefer candidates closer to the institution than Kirchner, "said the study's author, Luis Eduardo Fraccia.

As for the value of the dollar and its evolution for 2020, the results seem to correspond to those already noted in the Market Expectations Survey (MER): half of the managers considered that today the ideal value of the currency would be between $ 50 and up. $ 60 30% place it above $ 60 and 20% below $ 50.

As, only 35% were inclined to the convenience of the dollarization of the economy, while 60% reject it (5% have not taken a stand on this subject). As for the expectations regarding the value of the dollar at the end of next year, 62% of entrepreneurs put it between 70 and 90 US dollars, 25% hoping to more than 90 US dollars and 13% to less than 70 US dollars.

Half of entrepreneurs expect a default in 2020, although anticipating a friendly negotiation with the Fund to avoid it. 67% place inflation 2020 between 40 and 60% and 62 years and 62 think that reference interest rates (Leliqs) will fall in 2020.

A positive aspect for the next decade: 80% think that Vaca Muerta is the main project of the country from 2020.

The majority (67%) felt that the current government's poor economic policy practices were more relevant than the inheritance received (the remaining 33% did not agree with this statement), while 60% of entrepreneurs expect average growth of between 0 and 2% for the 2020-2023 period; while 15% predict growth above 2% and 25% consider it directly negative.

As to who will mainly lead the economic policy in the event that Alberto Fernández would become the next president, 42% of businessmen feel that he will do it himself as president, although 38% think she will be guided by Cristina Kirchner. 20% did not think.

With regard to future elections, 78% of businessmen said that "prefers Maria Eugenia Vidal as candidate for 2023"If Sergio Massa had integrated the lists of Mauricio Macri, 67% believe that the current president would have been reelected.

They were also asked where Argentina should be oriented in its geopolitical strategy Starting next year. And the result obtained was a majority: 82% said that they should go to both the United States and China, while 10% chose only China and 8% only the United States.