Spain is waiting for the decision against the separatists …

From Madrid

This Monday, November 14 will be included in the Spanish calendar as one of the most important dates of the Iberian country since the end of the Franco dictatorship. The Supreme Court will announce the judgment of the trial against the independence leaders who organized the illegal referendum of October 1, 2017 in Catalonia, and they began the fugitive disconnection of this autonomous community of the Spanish state.

The 12 defendants, among them the former vice president of the Generalitat, Oriol Junqueras, and the former president of the Catalan National Assembly, Carmen Forcadell., can be prosecuted for rebellion or sedition, crimes punishable by penalties ranging from 15 to 25 years in prison and 10 to 15 years, respectively, in addition to embezzlement and disobedience. In the last hours, the Spanish newspapers L & # 39; vanguard and The countryThey announced that they would be prosecuted for sedition.

The decision is expected by the country with great expectation. The Catalan government and the sovereign organizations of the community convened marchesand on the 18th a general strike is announced. The Spanish executive sent a thousand men in uniform to Catalonia, with the order to stay there until the end of the week. The atmosphere is delicate, especially after a few weeks ago members of a radical independence group were arrested for their alleged attempt to commit a terrorist act. A charge historically linked to the crimes of the ETA Basque terrorist gang.

On the political front, a conviction may end up cutting the tightrope that unites the Spanish government and the Catalan executive, with the balance of another possible state intervention in regional institutions. A scenario that would be aggravated by the proximity of the general elections of November 10 and the limitations of the government of Pedro Sánchez, which is in place and does not have all the powers of the state to deal with a possible crisis.

"From the political point of view, it is obvious to any minimum objective observer that a severe sentence, as planned, will not only not solve the political conflict, but will only make things worse," he said. said José Luis Martí, professor of Pompeu Fabra University of Barcelona. "The judiciarization of politics never solves political conflicts," said Marti in a sentence shared by most people who observe the liberated conflict of passions.

According to different surveys, the dialogue between political leaders to resolve the Catalan conflict was the dominant gamble of Spanish society. However, over the past five years, this goal has not been reached timidly. While former President Mariano Rajoy (2011-2018) had ruled, the approach was a dynamic of extremes with an unsatisfactory balance. From passivity and indifference to the direct intervention of the Catalan government, as after the illegal referendum of 1 October.

This year, interim President Pedro Sánchez has attempted an approach with independence leaders by forming a dialogue table led by a rapporteur. However, before it could begin, the right-wing parties rejected the rapporteur's figure and denounced the Socialist leader for treason. A reaction, including electoral, right-wing forces, influenced by the ultra-nationalist spirit of the Vox party. In this context, Sanchez suspended the dialogue with the separatists and convened general elections in advance, leaving the tide of conflict in the hands of justice.

"If the pessimistic predictions about its content are realized, this sentence will constitute a negative step in the territorial balance of Spain, and particularly in the relations between Catalonia and Spain. It will be very difficult to manage the relationship from here, "explains Professor Martí. "It would be necessary to explore solutions such as the amnesty or the grace of the president of the government".

The problem is that these options do not seem likely, at least during the election period. Before the electoral campaign preceding the elections of April 28 and November 10, the Spanish political parties built their history based on the Catalan conflict.

Citizen President Albert Rivera asked Sanchez to promise not to forgive the independence leaders if they were found guilty, even to support the formation of the government. Pablo Casado, the leader of the Popular Party, has reduced tensions in recent weeks, but was the first to call Sánchez a traitor and demand Catalonia's intervention in the face of any sign of disobedience by its leaders.

The more moderate Socialist Party also played its cards with the Catalan conflict. From the engagement in the dialogue of February this year to a more strict and warning position towards the Catalan government, the community would not hesitate to intervene if the action of the Catalan leaders led to disobedience. In the meantime, we have reduced their expectations regarding the promotion of an agreed referendum in Catalonia and agreed to abide by the decisions of the PSOE, in the event that both of them form a coalition executive.

For its part, In Catalonia, the main sovereign forces are formed almost exclusively in relation to the independence. The movement led by the President of the Generalitat, Quim Torra, and former President Carles Puigdemont, opted for the path of confrontation, on the brink of insurgency. While Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya, led by the accused Oriol Junqueras, is inclined to the peaceful way. Despite these differences, both forces decided to give a unanimous answer to the sentence. A strategy to strengthen the independence movement's response to the Spanish justice and state, but also to strengthen the public demonstration, somewhat affected lately because of the constant political tension.

"There is no doubt that this conviction will strengthen support for the movement (sovereignty) and will provoke the indignation of many non-independence, Catalan and Spanish," said the Barcelona professor. "However, it is very difficult for the independence movement to easily overcome or even obtain 50% support from Catalan society in the short term. The company is very polarized and positions very well established.

The only thing that could affect this correlation of forces is what happens on Monday in Catalonia. Episodes of violence or a continuous street demonstration will test peaceful control and coexistence in the country. With the electoral framework in the background, political leaders will be under tremendous pressure to avoid a worsening of the conflict that aggravates the panorama.

However, the truth is that the Catalan problem will not find a solution in the short term. For Professor Martí, the only positive answer is "different leaders on both sides, who can reach an agreement on an agreed and accepted referendum, under the conditions decided jointly and held in Catalonia, to see First if there is a majority of Catalans who really want to become independent of Spain. "

An option that today is not even murmured in Madrid and that would be the opposite of what happened on October 1, 2017 and that will have a historic response on Monday when the judges of the Supreme Court will read their award to the leaders of independence.