Alvarez Agis: The situation in Argentina is very serious and creditors know it

"Obviously, the conference has to talk about the situation in Argentina.We have a presentation of 140 films and the first one says: we do not speak on behalf of Alberto Fernández"said the economist in statements on the radio La Red.

The economist admitted that it would give investors an approach with regard to Argentina because "no one knows" under what real conditions would Argentina be on Dec. 10 when the government will change if Fernandez finally wins the elections.

Alvarez Agis estimated that the current stock market is "more controlled and limited because there is a very colorful capital control, since Cambiemos tried to reach as few people as possible, or 2%".

"98% of people who buy less than $ 10,000 a month are not concerned, probably because the government wants these people to continue to vote and, in that sense, the reserves are exhausting. The central bank loses 100, 120 or 150 million dollars a day in an orderly cascade. It's not an avalanche, "he said.

Regarding the debt, the economist and consultant said that Argentina should make payments in December and is today in a situation of "pass-through" that aims to avoid default, but said that it would be vital for investors to accept it.

"The uncertainty will persist because we are facing the problem of a very complex transition, because it is clear that the chances do not play in favor of Macri but institutionally, nobody can do anything before December 10" , did he declare.

Alvarez Agis said that "the situation was very serious" and said that today, a bond of Argentina pays an interest rate of 20% or 25% in dollars when the interest rate at the international level is zero.

"Investors have already been told that they can not get paid now, which adds up to two years of recession, which is no longer the case since 2001. And unlike in 2001, with a very high inflation rate of about 60% In 2001, there was a recession and a deflation, "he said.

In this context, he said that it would be a strictly political decision to adjust or not the control of capital before or after the elections, because the drying up of reserves would continue and worsen the situation in which the next government will present itself.

"The only good thing about this situation is that the willingness to pay was very clear.Three months ago, the market was suspected of doubting the willingness of Alberto Fernández to pay the debt.

Today, the situation is very different because of the statements of Fernández and the history of Kirchnerism that is tired of paying debts, "he said.

He added: "The market is very clear: Argentina wants to pay, no matter who wins.The problem is that it can not pay today. gives him some time, maybe he can do it right and pay, but we need to implement a macroeconomic policy that rebuilds the ability to pay. "