What changes for Argentina with the new president of the United States? | the Chronicle

The future of economic relations between Argentina and the United States would not undergo great changes with the assumption of Joe biden as president of the North American country, although the future president must clarify his economic program, the economists consulted by Telam.

The steps Biden takes after he assumes his tenure regarding U.S. relations with China and Latin America, the possibility of a new tax assistance program, or tax reform are a few things that could affect the commercial and financial dynamics with Argentina, directly and indirectly.

For the director of the Argentine Political Economy Center (CEPA), Hernán LetcherIt is premature to venture into what Argentina’s relationship with Biden will look like, but he assured that “It’s hard for us to do worse commercially than with (Donald) Trump”.

“Under the Trump administration, our direct trading relationship went very badly: we lost the export markets for steel and biodiesel and we won the export market for lemons. impression that Biden has a more moderate position from a commercial point of view “Letcher remarked.

On the other hand, he said that we will have to wait for the definitions given by Biden regarding a possible tax assistance package for the pandemic, its relationship with China and possible tax reform that makes the system more progressive.

On this last point, he pointed out that although Biden was not supposed to impose a tax on the wealthy “Yes, there may be an increase in the rate of what the income tax would be.”

“This has a strong symbolic impact because, while the world’s leading power is raising taxes on those with a larger income stream to fund pandemic spending, the idea that in a world that is more regressive because of the pandemic, the State intervenes. to balance this dispute “Letcher said.

Natalia Motyl, an economist at the Fundación Libertad y Progreso, estimated that the impact of Biden’s triumph “it’s not going to be very meaningful” in economic relations with Argentina because the American president-elect “He will aim to restructure the internal economy for at least the first two years of his administration.”

“In the short term, we will see stability in the external sector which is favorable for developing markets like ours; likewise, Argentina is not a big player and no matter how much it fits the ideological line of the government, I don’t believe Biden will. to make significant changes to their business relationshipsMotyl said.

“Yes, we are going to have a chance with the big winner that is China, which has recovered in ‘V’ and is going to be favored by the victory of Biden because the trade war is going to end and it can grow even faster than the other countries, and this will increase the prices of raw materials, the economist told Telam.

“To a large extent, trade and financial relations go beyond what the authorities are. There may be changes in the tone and timing, but the volume of trade and even under the future agreement with the IMF, play more bureaucracy and technical teams more than who is in the White House “, declared the director of the Eco Go cabinet to Telam, Martin Vaunthier.

Yet he assured that “If you can build a more positive relationship in terms of diplomacy and tone, that in itself would be positive.”

For Christian Buteler, economist and financial analyst, it is in fact the monetary policies defined by the Federal Reserve that most affect countries like Argentina and “Not who’s in the White House.”

“I don’t think Biden’s coming to power will benefit or hurt us. The economic link will be okay. I don’t see any animosity against Latin America or that that will be his government’s goal in the next four years. “Buteler told Telam.

Currently, the United States is the main foreign investor in Argentina with 22.7% of the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) for nearly 17 billion dollars, according to data from the Central Bank, and is the third largest trading partner : In 2019, trade exceeded US $ 10,000 million and, between January and September 2020, accumulated more than US $ 5,700 million between exports (US $ 2,526 million) and imports (3 US $ 206 million).