Biden’s plan to regain world leadership is doomed to fail

Governments around the world are studying an article that appeared in January titled Why America Must Lead Again and written by a certain Joe Biden

The essay Biden wrote for Foreign Affairs regrets that the Trump administration has “resigned from the American leadership.” He promises that “Biden’s foreign policy agenda will put America back on the table.”

But it’s much easier for the president-elect to talk about regaining American leadership than it is to actually do it. America is not as powerful as it used to be. By simply joining international groups – like the World Health Organization or the Paris climate agreement – North America will not continue to “chair the table.” The cost of participating in global negotiations could be to make compromises that are not pleasant to Washington. It is not known whether the country’s politicians and voters will agree to pay that price.

In Washington, the terms “US-led world order”, “liberal world order” and “rules-based order” are often used interchangeably. This confusion is understandable. The post-WWII world order was essentially designed by the United States. This is why the IMF and the World Bank are based in Washington and the UN in New York.

Donald Trump came to power in 2016 saying that international bodies like the World Trade Organization are no longer serving the country. That the “globalists” impoverished ordinary Americans, he said. Trumpian hype and paranoia aside, there was a point under the rhetoric that was real. In a world where power is more evenly distributed, a rules-based order is not the same as a world ruled by the United States.

This unresolved tension is reflected in Biden’s approach to international affairs. In his article, he declares that “the United States must lead the world” on climate change and promises that the country “will bring together the world’s major carbon emitters at a summit.” The biggest is China. It seems highly unlikely that Beijing will obediently agree to appear at a meeting hosted by the United States, at which Biden promises to “make binding commitments to reduce emissions.”

Realistically, China and many others will insist that the only suitable forum for climate negotiations is the UN-sponsored talks.

Similar problems threaten to thwart Biden’s promise that the United States will be the leader in trade. He pledged to resist “the dangerous trend in the world towards protectionist measures”. But he knows that Trump’s hostility to free trade strikes a chord with many American voters.

Biden’s solution is to promise that “union and environmental leaders” will be “at the table” in any future trade negotiations. But that could delay progress towards new trade deals. Meanwhile, the world goes on. Last weekend, the leaders of 15 Asia-Pacific countries signed one of the largest free trade agreements in history. Biden and his team are talking about rallying American friends to pressure China. But things are already happening in this area.

Biden’s focus on working with the allies, rather than their resistance and abuse like Trump did, is clearly a good idea. But with a friendlier attitude does not guarantee success.

The European Union is continuing its plans to further regulate and tax US tech groups like Google and Amazon. The Biden administration, like the Trump administration, is likely to oppose many of these efforts. If a fight for taxes or technology regulation quickly ensues, it could dampen hopes that a new era of transatlantic courtesy will begin, or that “American leadership” will be an easy answer to serious governance problems. world.

Biden will have a hard time convincing Americans that the United States can benefit from international engagement without automatically assuming the leadership role. But The positive side of this is that the country will no longer actively destroy global institutions. This is reason enough to feel great relief.

Translation: Mariana Oriolo