The challenge of climate change | The pandemic cannot …

The global carbon dioxide emission, the main gas contributing to global warming, fell 7% this year compared to 2019 due to the crippling global economy that led to the outbreak of the pandemic, the United Nations reported. However, the concentration of greenhouse gases has continued to increase and the impact of this reduction on emissions will be negligible in the long term without additional measures. “The world is still heading for a temperature rise of more than 3 degrees this century”Cautions the 2020 Emissions Gaps Report, a climate change study prepared by the United Nations specialists.

It is estimated that a a temperature increase of more than 2 degrees compared to the pre-industrial period would imply the consolidation of strong environmental imbalances, with a direct impact on the hottest and most inundated areas, on agricultural and livestock activities, on the balance of vast ecosystems as well as on the worsening of extreme climatic phenomena such as floods, droughts and fires forest. That’s why he global objective reflected in the Paris agreement put the increase of 1.5 as a desirable framework for the end of this century.

The year 2100 appears to be the very long term. But this is not the case. The UN warns that if by 2030, in just nine years, countries do not deepen their commitment by reducing their emissions, “it will be impossible to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees. In fact, current policies until the outbreak of the pandemic would lead to an increase 3.5 degrees for 2100The document says.

The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2019 hit a record high of 59.1 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. “Global greenhouse gas emissions have grown by an average of 1.4% per year since 2010, but in 2019 the increase was faster, 2.6%, due to the greater impact of fires forest, ”says report.

Responsible countries

In absolute terms, the first GHG emitter is China, well above the United States, followed by the EU, India, Russia and Japan. Over the past thirty years, US GHG emissions have increased slightly and in Europe they have declined. However, China is experiencing exponential growth in its emissions, which currently puts it at almost twice as many emissions as the United States in absolute terms.

However, the per capita measure gives a very different result. The United States leads this ranking, followed by Russia and Japan. Next come China and the EU, and much lower than the world average, India. Together, China, the United States, the European Union and India account for 55% of the emissions, while if Russia and Japan are added to this list, the number reaches 65%.

Measurements

“GHG emissions can only be significantly reduced by 2030 if the economic recovery from COVID-19 is used as a gateway for determined decarbonization,” the UN report says. The organization calls on states to initiate measures to “direct support for zero emission technologies and infrastructure, reducing fossil fuel subsidies, phasing out new coal-fired power plants and promoting nature-based solutions, including large-scale landscape restoration and reforestation. “

Inequality

The inequality of GHG emissions by segment of the population is another way of looking at the disparity in consumption and access to goods and services. 15% of global emissions are only represented by the richest 1% of the population, with a level of emissions per capita approximately 35 times higher than the world average. The richest 10% in the world account for 48% of emissions. In exchange, the poorest 50% in the world represent only 7% of GHG emissions.

The impact of the pandemic

UN work shows that April saw the point of the biggest drop in emissions. At that time, the annual comparison showed a drop of almost 20%, from the stopping of land transport in the first place, followed by the consumption of electricity which decreased due to the decline in economic activity and industrial consumption. The slowdown in commercial aviation activity also contributed to the decline in emissions.

The drop of around 7% in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a result of the pandemic is far greater than the 1.2% drop that occurred in 2008/2009 with the subprime crisis.

Net zero emission commitments

Most of the world’s large and medium-sized economies have had net zero emissions commitments in place for a few decades. This involves reducing the activities that emit the most CO2, in particular the combustion of fossil fuels, so that the carbon sequestration of the plant kingdom is equivalent to the emissions derived from human activity. For example, countries in the European Union have pledged to have zero emissions by 2050, just as China announced its plan for 2060, Japan, South Korea, Canada, South Africa and Mexico. Argentina has also fulfilled its commitment, by 2050. Under Joe Biden, the United States is also expected to commit to 2050.

According to the UN, if countries kept these promises (including the United States), global warming by 2100 would drop to 2.5 / 2.6 degrees, showing that Even more ambitious goals will be needed for the second half of the century.