What will the Republican Party do when Joe Biden takes office?

Donald Trump’s defeat in the November election is starting to permeate the Republican ranks, but Trumpism promises to remain tied to the party that hosted it in 2016, which is now considering how far it should stay in the shadow of dogmas and whims of the outgoing President of the United States.

When Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell acknowledged Joe Biden’s victory on Tuesday, it looked like something had broken in the singular marriage between traditional party figures and the populist leader who redefined the party’s priorities four years ago. conservative training.

After all, McConnell had just come to grips with reality, as Trump continued to insist that there was “enormous evidence of electoral fraud,” which dozens of judges rejected.

However, his is more than a whole break shapes, since Trump’s challenge to the election result is above all a public relations campaign, with which the outgoing president tries to polish his mark as an enemy of established power before leaving the White House.

Falcons and moderates

Beyond the implications that this disagreement could have in Georgia’s January 5 special election – which will decide whether Republicans maintain control over the Senate -, No one in Washington expects an imminent divorce between Trumpism and conservatives who occupy positions of power across the country.

“Nothing will change for Republicans once Trump steps down,” Allan Lichtman, an American University history professor and author of a book on the conservative movement in the United States, told EFE.

For Lichtman, it is not that Trump revolutionized the Republican Party, but that he “reinforced its worst elements”, such as contempt for the facts or “denial of climate change”.

The ultra-conservative movement To taste, who began infiltrating the party over a decade ago, has already articulated some of the reactionary elements that would eventually form the basis of Trumpism, according to Rachel Blum, professor of politics at the University of Oklahoma and author of a book on the phenomenon.

“The Republican Party’s shift to a policy based on tackling what they perceive as a threat to their status (from immigrants and globalization) did not start with Trump, and it will not stop. not with Trump, ”Blum told EFE.

Trumpism, largely characterized by protectionism in the economy and conservatism in the social, It initially encountered stiff resistance from more moderate Republicans or free trade advocates, but the party ended up adopting Trump’s assumptions almost entirely.

Reinforced after the elections?

If the party’s electoral base had clearly rejected the experience that was Trump’s first term in the November election, the future of his movement would be more uncertain.

But, despite his defeat, the president obtained more than 74 million votes – 11 million more than in 2016 and a record for an incumbent president -, while the Republicans obtained good results in Congress and state legislatures.

“Trump has changed the course of the Republican Party for the future,” said Donald Critchlow, Katzin professor of history at Arizona State University and author of several books on conservatives and populism, in a telephone conversation with EFE.

The outgoing president gave a considerable gift to a party whose aging white electoral base was shrinking in the face of the country’s changing demographics, and it attracted many people who had not voted before.

He also won over many low-income white workers, who traditionally supported Democrats, but began to see the party as sold to the interests of privileged elites on both coasts, although Biden managed to win back many of them in the industrial belt. .

“If we now go back to the traditional unfettered free trade party, I think we’re going to lose the electoral base (which Trump brought to us) as fast as we got it. We can’t go back to that,” he said. said Republican Senator Marco in mid-November. Rubio, in an interview with the publication Axios.

Candidate in 2024?

Breaking away from the principles of Trumpism would be easier for Republicans if Trump committed to a silent retirement in his early years out of the White House, as is the tradition in the country.

But Trump is feeding off the attention and has already hinted that he will run for president again in 2024, a candidacy he could announce on the same day as Biden’s inauguration on Jan.20, according to various media outlets. .

Analysts consulted by EFE believe that Trump’s candidacy will not materialize, both because of his age – he will be 78 in 2024 – and because of his debts of over $ 400 million he accumulated and his problems with the US Treasury.

Additionally, the New York attorney’s office continues to investigate whether Trump has committed crimes such as bank and insurance fraud, and he cannot be ruled out until after he leaves the White House he is prosecuted. or condemned, which would make him a “martyr” among his supporters, according to Critchlow.

Maybe that’s why the president confessed to some of his allies that he could announce a candidacy in 2024 and step down about two years later if he thinks he can lose again, the magazine said this week. . Politico.

This strategy would allow him to maintain the reins of the party at least until the legislative elections of 2022, and would help promote a presidential candidate in 2024 who keeps his principles and style alive.

Trumpism’s clearest heirs would be his children Ivanka and Donald Jr. or Senators Josh Hawley and Tom Cotton; while those who want the party to return to where it was are hoping to appoint former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.

Trump is also planning to start his own internet TV channel, a platform that would allow him to control some of the disinformation his subscribers receive every day.

“As long as Trump retains a platform to speak out, his primary focus will remain the truth,” Lichtman warned.

By Lucía Leal, EFE agency

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