Brexit: who won and who lost? | Divorce applied …

From Paris.

Four years and six months of negotiations with blows of tragedy and a final 1246-page trade treaty sealed on December 24 The separation of Great Britain from the European Union. On January 1, 2021, the collective decision of British voters came to fruition when, on June 23, 2016, they voted in favor of the “leave”, that is to say the famous Brexit that ended an entire era conflict and clashes but which, despite everything, kept the United Kingdom in the Union since it entered the circle after the first enlargement in 1973.

Brexit is no longer a metaphor, a concept or a cursed word but a profound upheaval, both for London and for the European Union. Nothing happened like a thought. Four years ago, for many analysts, the departure of the United Kingdom from the Community group would be the end of the European Union. No end, not even the final abyss dreamed of first by the European far right and, later, the President of the United States, Donald Trump.

In June 2016, the European Europhobes were jumping for joy: Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, Marine Le Pen in France and Matteo Salvini in Italy celebrated the British decision as theirs because they saw it as the beginning of the end, the coming into force of an agony that they had promised their constituents for years. Then, the same year, candidate Donald Trump endorsed the British Brextists as Nigel Farage and today Prime Minister Boris Johnson. And as soon as he took office, Trump decorated his mandate by insulting the EU’s multilateralism. Michel Barnier, the head of negotiations for the European Union, strikes a strict balance between what happened: “What changes is that the country that is leaving us will be alone and we will continue together”.

A story opposite to that of the Greek myth of Cassandra happened with Brexit: the priestess of Apollo predicted the fall of Troy and no one believed her. Troy fell, but not the European Union, as predicted by predictive analytics, barely earned leave. The process of rupture took place without the EU breaking apart under the weight of its dissent. Diverging Cardinal Point Syndrome worked the other way around: the constant divisions between north and south and east and west had no effect this time around. The 27 told the rebellious teenager that if he wanted to leave the house, leave, without ever breaking the common position. On the contrary, whenever London raised the tone of its whims or demands, the European Commission was even more intransigent. No one celebrates the loss of an ally like the UK, of course: it is Europe’s second largest economy (after Germany), second largest army (behind France) and a very influential country in the field. diplomatic (member of the United Nations Security Council). However, the agreement contains important concessions. Although the UK left the EU on January 1, 2021, the country will continue to apply EU rules until the end of the year. In total, the treaty gave its former partner access to a market of 450 million consumers on a plateau with no obligation to pay tariffs or fees. There are still several stages, the first of which is the validation of the agreement by the Member States of the Union. One would only have to oppose and the treaty would come back to the negotiating table.

Who won and who lost? From the continent, the European Commission is sitting on the top of the podium. From London, the certainty is upside down. Henri Sterdyniak, economist, researcher and specialist in Brexit at the French Observatory of Economic Conjunctures, believes that (OFCE) “Great Britain appears to be the main winner of this agreement”.

Boris Johnson is perhaps the most iconic, confusing and paradoxical winner of this whole process. In 2016, he chose the area of ​​Brexit, then he took on the post of Prime Minister and was able to carry through the difficult process of negotiations which separated London from the continent. His successful “deal” put untold political capital in Johnson’s hands. One challenge remains: to prove that its post-Brexit promises will be true.

For its part, the EU has shown in recent months that it has renewed its sovereign capacity and strategic autonomy. In this tragic year, he agreed on the European vaccination campaign against Covid-19, succeeded in negotiating a reconstruction fund (750,000 million euros) through which the debt is pooled and, in the last installment of 2020, he embodied an ambitious investment agreement. with China (even before Joe biden assumed the presidency of the United States).

In continental Europe and on the island, the same slogan “new stage” resonates. A long road awaits them both. As the great British writer Graham Greene said: “when you separate, you don’t suffer much, the shock comes later”. Pascal Lamy, former Director General of the World Trade Organization, warns: “the agreement which has just been signed is only the beginning of a new chapter in a vast saga which has gone through many episodes and will know many others “.

London and the European Union start their life with a divorce certificate in hand. The effectiveness of separation remains both a gamble in a dark room and a mysterious bureaucratic tangle. There are new negotiations ahead, twists and turns, advances and setbacks and, perhaps, some reconciliation. The position of the British Prime Minister’s father on this issue is very ironic. Stanley johnson he told RTL radio: “I will always be European”. The writer and former MEP later said he was doing the paperwork to apply for French nationality (his mother was French).