Trump survives despite his defeat, Bolsonaro does not …

From Rio de Janeiro

Donald Trump leaves the presidency as leader of the opposition, with the prospect of launching his candidacy in four years. When he leaves the presidency, Jair Bolsonaro will not have such a favorable situation.

There were always differences between them, amidst so many similarities. The differences start to matter more the moment they leave office.

Trump was a major opinion maker, via NBC, for more than ten years before the Americans elected him president. He was a millionaire, owner of buildings, golf courses, casinos, among others.

The New York mogul had a troubled relationship with the Republican Party, which resisted his influence.

Obama’s two terms represented a very large Democratic Party hegemony, so Hillary Clinton was the favorite to be elected in 2016. Without a candidate who could compete with her, the Republican Party gave in to Trump’s candidacy as the only. one who could compete with Hillary. Even though he had fewer voices, Trump triumphed with accelerated final offensive, betting on which states he could win, albeit by a small difference, to secure the electoral college votes that led him to the presidency. It was a feat the Republican Party would not have achieved without Trump.

From that point on, a new kind of relationship developed between Trump and the Republicans. They were hostages of the tycoon’s government, as Trump might have a nationwide party, with many governors and most of the Senate.

Throughout his tenure, even with the arbitrary attitudes of Trump, who never consulted the party, there was no break by parliamentarians with the government. Trump’s candidacy for re-election was a consensus within the party, which sought no other candidate in the face of Trump’s favoritism.

This was supported by an economy which, unlike in European countries or in Japan, recovered from the 2008 crisis. A growing economy, with job creation, is a sure formula for re-election to the United States. United.

But it came the unexpected and violent outbreak of the pandemic, which changed the electoral scenario. The economy turned from boom to bust and the unemployment rate started to soar again. Consequently,s Democrats rethought the possibility of victory. They chose the moderate Joe Biden, backed by the vote of the two blacks – which he inherited for having been Obama’s vice president – while Trump prepared for more radical candidacies: Bernie Sanders or Elisabeth Warren.

Trump’s denial attitude cemented his defeat. He tried to reduce the wear and tear on his image, assuming the vaccination was a success for his government. His speech encouraging the invasion of the Capitol had a double effect: he had the condemnation of several Republican deputies and He also consolidated his ability to mobilize his most radicalized supporters. The exposure of the alleged electoral fraud reached large sectors of the population and the Republican Party itself.

The invocation of the 75 million votes – the leader who obtains the second largest vote in U.S. history – and denial of the election result are already elements of his election platform for 2024. Trump is letting the government count on that vote and with a strong national party, even with minority seats in Congress. The very impeachment attempt leaves him in the spotlight and keeps his image central to the political scene for at least a while.

And Bolsonaro? First, he will face his candidacy for re-election in a much more difficult situation than Trump’s.. His chances of re-election are much lower than those of Trump, who was counting on growing the economy and falling unemployment.

Bolsonaro lived his first two years in government in recession, which lasts for the third year of his term., with record unemployment and the precariousness of the majority of the population. He suffers from the results of Trump’s defeat and the assumption of a government hostile to him in his place. He lost the 2020 municipal elections and, by retaining his negativist vision, his image is affected and will continue to erode throughout his mandate, without the economy and the level of employment recovering. .

By leaving the government, Bolsonaro will leave without an organized party, without the media space he now has, he will likely be the victim of a large number of lawsuits, a situation similar to that of their children. Under these conditions, if he really cannot be re-elected, like Trump, he leaves the government without conditions of political survival, even with many radicalized and isolated supporters.