More than half of Peruvians have entered their forties …

From Lima

Since Sunday, more than half of Peruvians have again been confined in quarantine. In the middle of a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, which has caused infections and deaths from covid-19 and overwhelmed the precarious health system, the government has decreed a new quarantine in ten of the twenty-five regions of the country, including Lima where a third of the 32 million Peruvians live. ANDOverall, the regions where containment is in force, declared on “extreme alert”, concentrate a little more than 50% of the population. from the country. This second quarantine will last until February 14, when the situation will be assessed to decide whether the confinement is lifted or extended, or whether it extends to other areas of the country, now considered to be on “very high alert”. “or” high “.

This new quarantine is more flexible than the previous one, which covered the whole country between March and June, considered to be one of the most severe in the world. On this occasion, the operation of a series of non-essential economic activities is allowed, such as construction, part of industry, mining, among others. Restaurants and various businesses can serve by delivery. Unlike what happened during the first quarantine, this time You can go out for an hour a day to walk, cycle or play sports, but you cannot use private cars.

The second quarantine begins when reports show 7,147 new infections and 171 deaths the day before it appeared and a total of 1,133,022 reported cases and 40,857 deaths since the start of the pandemic. With the start of the second wave of the pandemic, The Peruvian health system, underfunded for 30 years of neoliberal policies that reduced the state to a subsidiary role of the private sector and abandoned public services, quickly collapsed. In the health centers, there are no more intensive care beds, ventilators, there are no more doctors, the sick die without being able to be treated, oxygen is scarce, which is sold at a price. raised by private companies who profit from the fear of people to profit from it without the authorities intervening because their priority is to defend the free market.

In this dramatic scenario, the government was forced to declare a quarantine that a few days ago, when it issued new restrictions to deal with the second wave, it had ruled out for economic reasons. Business unions question this measure, but health experts support it.

“The situation is very serious, serious, tragic. Quarantine is a painful measure, but it is necessary to reduce the speed of infections, which is very high and has taken over our health system, which is very fragile, fragmented, archaic, on a ridiculous budget. All the second waves of a pandemic are very intense, worse than the first waves. I’m afraid that fifteen days of quarantine will not be enough and that it will take another fifteen days for the situation to be more manageable, but prolonging it by more than a month would be negative ”, infectologist Eduardo Gotuzzo told PáginaI12, professor emeritus at Cayetano Heredia University.

“In order to respond to this second wave,” explains Dr Gotuzzo, “in addition to quarantine, there is a need to improve the first level of medical care, to provide oxygen to the community, so that patients do not do not seriously arrive at health centers. who can no longer access to participate. It is necessary to change this almost military approach to the management of the pandemic that we have known, which lacked a social component, strategic alliances with civil society, which was a serious mistake. President (Francisco) Sagasti said that this social component must be given, that is to say a positive change, we must now see that it is carried out ”.

Significant impact on the economy

The pandemic and the first quarantine had a severe impact on the economy, which fell 12% last year. The Minister of Economy, Waldo Mendoza, indicated that despite this second quarantine, the government maintains its projection of 10% growth for this year.

Peru is one of the countries in the region that has done the least to help people cope with this crisis. In the past year, only two vouchers of 760 soles ($ 210) each were delivered to 8.5 million families, which took months to distribute. When this new quarantine was decreed, a third bond was granted, but now to 4.2 million families and for 600 soles ($ 165).

“I see it is very difficult to maintain the projection of 10% growth this year. The delay in receiving the vaccine affects reactivation. No one wants quarantine, but when the health care system crumbles because of the number of infected and people die on the streets, as it is now, there is no alternative, health imposes itself on the economy. This last public support voucher which has been arranged to issue is insufficient. At least two more bonds of 760 soles are expected to be given to more than eight million families. Peru has the resources to do this. The vouchers, in addition to being an aid for the very affected population, have a reactivating effect because they stimulate demand ”, land economist Humberto Campodónico told this newspaper, professor at the University of San Marcos and columnist for the newspaper The Republic.

In dialogue with PageI12, economist Oscar Dancourt, professor at the Catholic University and former president of the Central Reserve Bank, underlined that “the country has tax arrears, due to significant savings and a debt capacity because its public debt is low, to give more help to the population, but this was not done by a political decision it has to do with a neoliberal prejudice. This decision was a mistake which aggravated the economic crisis and unemployment ”.

In Lima alone, due to the pandemic, one million jobs were lost out of the three million jobs deemed adequate; another two million residents of Lima were already underemployed or unemployed before the pandemic. At the national urban level, where before the onset of this health crisis, just over eight million out of fourteen million had adequate jobs, just over two and a half million of those jobs would have been lost.

“All quarantines produce recession and unemployment. It is difficult to predict now the impact on employment of this new quarantine, we do not know how long it will last. If it lasted a month or a little longer, as epidemiologists say, it should be extended, I would estimate that half a million more suitable jobs could be lost in Lima, ”Dancourt says.

When the new quarantine was announced, four days before it went into effect, the population took to the streets and shops. Despite the fact that food and essentials outlets were reported to remain open, long queues were observed in stores, traffic collapsed in several areas. These were crowded days, precisely what you want to avoid to cut this second wave. Those who do not have the resources to shop, who live from hand to mouth, are beginning a new lockdown that leaves them without income with uncertainty over the arrival of the aid announced by the government. The tough days of the first wave are back.