Elections in Ecuador: progressivism or neoliberalism …

From Quito.Ecuador votes this Sunday in a decisive presidential and legislative election. In this Andean, coastal and Amazonian country, located between Colombia and Peru, paradigmatic of this political era, one of the pieces of the continental shelf is played, in which progressivism can win or neoliberalism deepens in one of the most complex and uncertain times of our time.

The country arrives exhausted after four years of Lenin Moreno, a model case of political betrayal. The current president, who was vice president of Rafael Correa from 2007 to 2013, he persecuted those who brought him to government, radically changed his internal economic and foreign policy. He assumed as part of a progressive and Latin American project, turned to a neoliberalism with unrestricted alignment with Washington.

Moreno already represents, personally, the past. His political vision was buried for the indigenous and popular uprising of October 2019 then for lack of answer before the pandemic and its reflection, already habitual, of hiding – literally – before the crisis. But Moreno has never been a strategic bet, but rather a transitional piece that has already fulfilled its role, with a strong economic, institutional and geopolitical impact.

Its continuity is Guillermo Lasso, whose economic program was implemented under Moreno. Lasso is a neoliberal banker with offshore accounts, beaten at the polls in 2013 and 2017. At the moment, the candidate appears as second in most polls – a contested place with Yaku Pérez, candidate of the Pachakutik party – and his aspiration is to reach the poll, which would take place in April, to try to build an anti-correista front.

It is an election under strong suspicion, something that crosses conversations with those who came to Quito for the elections. The irregularities of the National Electoral Council (CNE) were numerous from the beginning, how to prevent Correa from registering as vice-president in formula with Andrés Arauz, suspend the registration of the electoral list under which the citizens’ revolution had been presented in the last election, or leave the election of candidates to the Andean parliament on hold for Sunday.

The CNE was questioned by various political forces. Its lack of transparency, of partiality, is part of a process of institutional degradation that took place during the years of the Moreno government. Law enforcement, with the use of different powers – with an epicenter in the judiciary – to accuse, persecute, behead, gave rise to an institutionality which, in the face of Sunday’s protest, shows its weak credibility, as well as its political role.

In this context, there are hypotheses on possible letters and last-minute maneuvers to modify the popular will, build scenarios of uncertainty or crisis that impact the final result. A context reminiscent of what happened in Bolivia in October 2020, which managed to be canceled due to the magnitude of the victory of Luis Arce with 55.1% of the vote and more than 25 points of difference on the second. For this reason, in this case too, part of what will be decisive on Sunday will be the magnitude or not of the result.

Part of the suspicion is also given by Moreno’s recent trip to Washington, where, together with the former government minister, Maria paula romo – recalls his role in the October 2019 crackdown – met with key Latin American politicians, such as Juan Gonzalez, Director for the Western Hemisphere of the National Security Council, Luis Almagro, Secretary of the Organization of American States, Marco rubio, appointed in 2020 to head the Senate Intelligence Committee.

One of the translations of this meeting was the escalation of media attacks on Arauz’s campaign. Washington’s bet for Ecuador is to maintain the neoliberal-subordinate continuity built under Moreno and, therefore, its current candidate is Lasso or whoever can cope with correism, which would represent the return of a Latin American policy, open to the geopolitical scene, particularly in investment matters, in a context of strong litigation.

Polling stations will open at seven in the morning and close at five in the afternoon on Sunday, when speculation or political operations could emerge. At the moment, the image has been of calm in the streets, with little countryside presence on the streets of Quito, a city facing recession and the second wave of the pandemic with traumatic memories of the first, due to what happened in Guayaquil, when hospitals collapsed and the dead were found in homes and on the streets.

However, the choice is on the lips of the majority, in conversations while getting in a cab, while having coffee. Responses on electoral preferences are heterogeneous and sometimes elusive, in a political context marked by political persecution led by the government. Therefore, among other variables, there is the hidden vote, that is to say that of those who do not express openly who they will vote on Sunday, a vote which, we believe could go to Arauz’s candidacy.

Sunday’s result will impact the country and its prospects for years to come. The stakes are high for Latin America, which can be seen in the support provided by Alberto Fernandez Yes Pepe Mujica to the candidacy of Arauz, for example, or to those who came to Quito for these days which are part of a continental dispute.