Johnson has announced a phased exit from confinami …

From London

Between caution and fireworks, this Boris Johnson The 2021 model favors moderate caution. The Prime Minister announced in the House of Commons a gradual and conditional exit from national imprisonment which has been in effect since January 5. “The threat remains significant, with the number of hospitalizations now below the peak in April last year. But we can take these new steps thanks to the determination of the british people and the impact of the vaccination program that the National Health Service has achieved, ”Johnson told parliament.

The phased and conditional discharge consists of four stages. On March 8, schools will be reopened and social gatherings between two people from different homes will be allowed as part of one of the main objectives of the reopening: to rebuild the fabric of social relations untangled by confinement.

On March 29, a second phase of this first stage will begin with the authorization of meetings of up to six people in public space and of two houses in the gardens of private houses. At that time, the formal order to stay at home will end, but it will be recommended to travel locally, avoiding long journeys.

Resistant to sectoral pressure and to the “libertarian” wing of his own party, the reopening of non-essential shops and gastronomy will be left for the second stage, from April 12. At this point, pubs and restaurants will be open to the public outdoors. Funerals can have up to 30 people and weddings 15 guests. On these dates, information will be given on the reopening of face-to-face courses at university level.

The third step would be from May 17, a key step towards the new normal with the reopening of the service inside pubs and restaurants, added to hotels and cinemas. The limit for outdoor group meetings is increased to 30 people, whether in parks or gardens. Sporting events can have up to a thousand spectators or half of the total capacity of the stands in the case of events in closed spaces: if they take place outdoors, the limit is 10,000 for large football stadiums.

The fourth step from June 21 includes the end of limitations for social gatherings, including discos. For now, this is a distant goal that will depend on the impact of each reopening on the pandemic figures.

The four conditions

The impact will be measured according to four criteria:

* Progress of the vaccination program

* that hospitalization and death rates continue to decline

* do the same with infection levels

* and that there are no new changes that endanger the achievement of these objectives.

Any decline in these four criteria should lead to a postponement of the transition dates. The vaccination program (more than 17 million people, 24% of the population, since its launch on December 8) and the impact of the national confinement allow a certain optimism as shown by the latest statistics.

The number of infections peaked on January 8 with 68,053 cases detected: by February 18, it had fallen to 12,057. Covid hospitalizations fell by almost half, to around 20,156 patients on February 16. The deaths went from 1358 on January 19 to 519 on February 11.

Intensification of the immunization program will be essential. The Prime Minister stressed to Parliament that the two applied vaccines – Pfizer and Astra Zeneca – have had a clear impact on reducing the number of hospitalizations. In the fourth week after application of the first dose, hospitalizations were reduced by 85-94%.

The program covered four of the new risk groups: health workers, social groups and age groups up to 65 years. The goal is for the remaining five risk groups to be vaccinated by mid-April and for the entire population to be vaccinated by mid-July. “The larger the vaccinated population, the less containment is needed,” Johnson said.

The temptation of numbers

The temptation of statistics was the fireworks of an accelerated opening, a rapid abolition of the limits of social interaction and the rapid establishment of pubs and restaurants, emblems of the return to the “new normal” . The science wing of government, embodied by its medical adviser Chris Whitty and science adviser Patrick Wallance, has managed to impose itself on the influential group of libertarian pro-Brexit skeptics in the Conservative Party who want to erase everything as quickly as possible. activity.

But he isThe Prime Minister made an essential concession to the libertarians. Primary and secondary school will restart on March 8, that is to say at the same time, and not in a phased manner as jointly requested by the education unions and many scientists.

The risk is in sight. The simultaneous return to class will mean that, from day to night, there will be 10 million people, one sixth of the population, interacting: the approximate sum of students, parents and educators who will circulate socially. “This is an insane risk that can trigger a cataract of infections, which will prolong the problems suffered by the educational process and jeopardize all progress made,” warned education unions and school leaders in a joint press release.

Johnson, who has made the need to return to class a mantra, has followed the libertarian instincts of the Boris 2020 model in this regard.The most spontaneous part of his political personality, he has the chatty, warm and boastful optimism of a local pub owner. Last March, given the overwhelming spread of the pandemic in Europe, he said “he was sure they would eliminate the coronavirus” and that in “12 weeks they would have everything under control.” Similarly, he predicted a normal Christmas and insisted on resuming classes on January 4 of this year, a decision that had to be overturned the same evening amid the overwhelming numbers of the pandemic and the impending National Health overflow. Service (NHS).

The Boris 2021 was born from the ashes of the previous model and in the hands of a successful vaccination program that is helping it reverse its steep drop in last year’s polls. The reopening of primary and secondary school in unison, these 10 million people who will mingle with the coronavirus hive, could be your Achilles heel.