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The government’s decision to limit increases in electricity and gas tariffs is being closely followed by oil companies. Companies believe that the executive branch will work on future fuel increases. For this reason, some speak of “blackout” (blackout). That is to say a date until which they could do the next pump lifts. They assume it will be in the middle of the year, before STEP.
So far, companies are exploring a number of private agreements, to self-regulate. They agree to sell oil below market values - crude is on the rise in the world – in order to avoid executive intervention. They want to avoid limiting exports or imposing a decree to freeze prices.
Oil companies and refiners are in constant contact, exploring the possibilities. But everyone is watching YPF. No one in the industry can move prices without the green light from the predominantly state-owned oil company. So far, the company has let others try to understand each other, and emit a few “winks” of complicity.
Since From August to February, fuels increased by 40%. From the beginning of the month, oil companies have to pay more for biofuels and, from Friday, their taxes will be increased. Until now, YPF still transferred the largest tax component to final prices. But that’s when Guillermo Nielsen was president of YPF. Now this position belongs to Pablo González, a politician. CEO Sergio Affronti is trying to improve YPF’s balance sheets and that would imply increases.
In the industry is circulating a proposal for increase prices at the pump by 15%. It would be phased, monthly increases of approximately 5%. This would reach up to the “blackout” or the upload blackout. It will be at least two months before the primary elections. The point is that this date is not yet defined. The longer the elections are delayed, the greater the chances of increasing.
Although a barrel of crude oil costs around US $ 70, local producers agree to sell it between US $ 53 and US $ 55 to refiners. They do this to avoid any intervention by the executive power. And to preserve their exports. The worst-case scenario would be that the Department of Energy limit field offices to preserve local values.
YPF and Pan American Energy view the debate from a distance. They are integrated: that is to say produce and refine. They don’t need third parties to run their business. Raizen’s position (which uses the Shell brand) is different, which need to buy oil. Or Vista (by Miguel Galuccio), whose company is vender this crude to be refined.
A 15% increase would be lower than the industry forecast – they estimate they need a 20% recomposition – but it would help make the numbers less red. YPF just posted worst annual balance in history, with losses of over US $ 1 billion and – for the first time – sales in pesos lower than in the previous year, an unprecedented step in an economy that has an annual inflation rate of 40%.
YPF could apply an increase from Friday, close to 3%, to offset the higher cost of biofuels and taxes. But in doing so, it will fuel inflation expectations for the month of March, just as the government is fighting with food companies, construction companies and building material manufacturers not to increase further. by 2%. The 5% increase that some of your competition would want – privately – is stirring. But they must see its political viability.
Energy experts who have walked through the ruling party in the past know that prices must go up. “They never left Nielsen, but maybe that was because they didn’t want him, and they weren’t going to let him make improvements that would have their mark. As González is someone of his own style, he may have the wrist to do what is necessary, ”they venture.
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