How Joe Biden is changing Trump’s strategy for Latin America

These are not extreme changes, but American policy towards Latin America is undergoing substantial modification. The theory of the second axis of evil has already been dismantled – the first was that of Bush Jr. with Iraq, Iran and Syria – which Trump had raised with Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. Next week, it is possible that it will be announced that the government of Havana will be excluded from the list of sponsoring states of terrorism. 320,000 Venezuelan exiles have already obtained Temporary Protection Status (TPS). And measures for migrants entering the border with Mexico are under constant review. Gone are the threats of Trump to invade Venezuela or the rhetoric of his hawks John Bolton and Elliot Abrams. Now it’s Juan Sebastián González, born in Colombia, the National Security Advisor for the Western Hemisphere, who manages the new agenda for the continent and has direct access to Biden’s ear.

The president himself is a good connoisseur of the region. During his eight years with Barack Obama, Biden has visited Latin America 16 times outnumbering any other US president or vice president by that number. If you consider your Senate voting record, you can see that it is a moderate with some conservative tendencies in terms of economic agreements and something more liberal when it comes to the humanitarian field (migration).

Mexico remains the biggest concern in Washington. And it does not come alone. It is closely linked to Central America. From there come the latest waves of migrants and the Biden administration believes there must be an integrated policy for this whole conglomerate of countries. This is why he presented to Congress an immigration reform that focuses on the reasons for emigration from Central America, with an investment plan of $ 4,000 million over the next four years to stimulate the region’s economy and stop the expulsion of its citizens. He also promised to “humanize” the process of entering the United States, after years of Trump’s iron fist. Of course, this “will” will take time and in no way translate into an “open door” policy.

During a recent “virtual tour” to Mexico, Secretary of State Antony Blinken issued a clear warning to people fleeing poverty and misery in Central America: “To anyone considering taking this trip, our message is this : do not do that. We strictly enforce the new immigration laws and our border security measures. The border is closed to irregular immigration ”. But the pressure on the Mexican side is enormous and increases, precisely, a serious human rights dilemma. In the last two weeks the number of unaccompanied migrant minors detained at the border has tripled. Apprehensions in February reached levels not seen since mid-2019 and were the highest this month in 15 years, according to Reuters data.

“They see him as the president of migrants, and that’s why many think they are going to join the United States,” Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said of Biden the morning after a virtual meeting with his counterpart American on March 1. “We have to work together to regulate the flow, because this issue cannot be resolved overnight“. Of course, the gangs that organize the passage of undocumented migrants are not waiting and are showing “an unprecedented level of sophistication”, according to a senior Mexican official. From the very day Biden took office, there has been an increase in the activities of “coyotes”, connoisseurs from all corners of the border. They charge Central Americans $ 3,000 to $ 7,000 per person. If they are South American or Asian, the sum can reach 20,000 dollars.

On his last day in the White House, Jan. 19, Trump signed an order to postpone the deportations of Venezuelans for 18 months. Something that kept them in administrative limbo and prevented them from working. With TPS from Biden, can legally reside without major restrictions until they comply with the rules to access the famous green card. With this policy, the strategy of economic sanctions is also reversed to force Nicolás Maduro to call free elections. “It does not work. We have seen how the regime and the markets have adjusted to the oil sanctions and we can continue that way for who knows how long. There is no rush to lift these sanctions, but it is recognized that unilateral fines did not work to force elections to be held and that the previous administration failed to coordinate with Europe and with its allies regarding Latin America, ”a State Department spokesperson told a spokesperson on Monday. group of journalists in Washington.

Despite this, Biden “will continue with the pressure until Maduro sits down at the table and makes the decision to call an election. Once that happens, we will discuss with the international community to see what sanctions could be lifted, ”added the spokesperson. A change of Gatopardista so that nothing changes. Unlike the European Union, the United States continues to recognize Juan Guaidó as president in charge of VenezuelaDespite the fact that the National Assembly, from which its constitutional legitimacy emanated, is dominated by Chavism after the December elections.

This is the same approach that Washington will take with Cuba. In the coming days, he will announce that he is removing the island from the list of countries sponsoring terrorism, which he shares with Syria, North Korea and Iran, and that it is a claim of personalities such as the Secretary General of the United Nations, António. Guterres and former Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos. For the rest, in Havana, they will have to continue to wait. In Washington, they are in no rush to return to “baseball diplomacy” that Barack Obama had raised. Although it is possible that Biden will reject the entry into force of Title III of the Helms-Burton Act, which allows lawsuits of US citizens against international companies for using properties confiscated by the Castro regime after the revolution. This rule had been suspended by all US presidents since 1996 and Trump decided to activate it in 2019.

For the rest of the continent, there will be “Bussines as usual”. Nothing will change drastically. But it won’t be Trump’s “oblivion” either. Washington’s concern centers on China’s expansion In the region. For example, Ecuador sells almost all of its oil production to the Asian giant. The agenda with Brazil is important, because of the weight of this country in South America and as an emerging power, even if it is now retracted. Together with Colombia, he will closely follow the peace process. And with Argentina everything will focus on the economic question and negotiations with international financial organizations.

This is how Juan Gabriel Tokatlian, vice-chancellor of Torcuato Di Tella University sees it: “Joe Biden is, after John Kennedy, the second Catholic president of the United States. He admires Pope Francis and considers him “the moral leader of the world”. Cabe recordar que el Papa, in addition diálogos con distintos Jefes de Estado, solicitó el apoyo a la negociación entre el gobierno argentino y los acreedores privados y no sería unimaginable un contacto discreto en el mismo sentido between Francisco y Biden y an eventual acuerdo con the bottom. Finally, if the position that Argentina brings to the table with the IMF is solid and sustainable, there would be no reason for Washington to condition or reject it, especially when there was a co- (ir) responsibility in dealing with the debt issue. 2018-2019 between the government of Mauricio Macri and the Fund ”.

And finally, there is the pandemic. To the State Department we are worried about Chinese and Russian interference in the matter. Also because of the consequences that could lead to a massive emigration of Latin Americans to the southern border to escape an unprecedented health crisis. “The United States still sees Latin America as an important trading partner and a lingering health crisis in the South could lead more people to seek their luck in the northExplains Harold Trinkunas of Stanford University. But vaccine production is scarce for everyone and there will be no humanitarian aid until the coronavirus crisis is resolved on its own territory.

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