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The arrival of vaccines has become the great ray of hope in 2020 for many citizens, after months of high deaths, successive waves of infections and endless lockdowns by covid-19.
However, experts warn that you cannot let your guard down: “applying the coronavirus vaccine is not a carte blanche to ignore health measures such as physical distancing and hand washing”, warns the Organization World Health Organization (WHO).
Amid the current pandemic, vaccines “are vital not only for saving lives, but also for preventing the long-term effects” of the disease, agency experts say.
But these experts and others are warning that cases may continue to rise even as vaccination progresses.
Why can this happen despite the vaccines? Here are some of the reasons:
“If you are exposed to the virus a day or a week after the injection, you are still vulnerable to infection” and you can transmit it, say the experts.
1. Vaccines take a long time to work and are not 100% effective
The most widely distributed vaccines to date are two-dose (although one dose has already been approved as well). After the first dose, there is a good immune response which is activated approximately two weeks after application.
“However, it is really the second dose which then increases this immune response and the already acquired immunity becomes even stronger after its application in a shorter period of time,” explains the WHO.
And at that point, the person was largely unprotected.
“If you are exposed to the virus a day or a week after the injection, you are still vulnerable to infection and can pass the virus on to other peopleDr Julian Tang, virologist at the University of Leicester, UK, told BBC Mundo.
In addition, even if one is exposed to the virus several weeks after receiving the required doses, it is possible to become infected again.
“The available data suggests that some individuals may continue to be infected with covid, although I know they will have fewer viruses and therefore get less sick than those who were not infected or vaccinated. Likewise, I think the virus, once vaccinated, will be more difficult to transmit, ”says Andrew Badley, professor of molecular medicine at the Mayo Clinic in the United States.
The vaccine is effective when 80% of the population is vaccinated, specialists need it. Until then, it is important to maintain preventive measures.
2. There are not enough people vaccinated
Chile is one of the countries which is well aware that the vaccination campaign is not enough to contain the virus.
The South American nation is experiencing a rebound again in cases similar to June and July, the worst times for covid-19 in the country and which led to a strict quarantine.
During the month of February, it returned to about 5,000 new cases per day.
This despite being ranked fifth in the world in doses administered per 100 inhabitants, according to the monitoring of vaccines carried out by the University of Oxford (England). Surpassed only by Israel, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the United States.
“There is no contradiction between the increase in cases and the vaccines. We would really ask for something that cannot be expected from vaccines. Vaccines do not work immediately,” explained Dr Juan Carlos Said, master of public health, at BBC Mundo. by Imperial College London.
“In terms of population, to reduce the number of hospitalizations and deaths, the vaccine is effective when 80% of the population is vaccinated“, exactly.
The effectiveness of vaccines may be compromised if there is massive contact between the vaccinated population and people infected with the Manaus variant (Brazil), scientists say.
3. Citizen relaxation
Another reason why the disease can continue to progress, to a greater or lesser degree, is due to the fatigue of citizens with the rest of the protective measures. This was also the case in Chile and it has spread to many other countries, where the virus can replicate.
“The increase in cases [en Chile][ tiene que ver principalmente con el relajamiento de las normas de autocuidado durante el verano, lo que ha sucedido tambin en otros pases del mundo”, seal el Ministerio de Salud a BBC Mundo.
Algo que tambin corroboran los expertos.
“Hay una fatiga respecto a la pandemia y, si al comienzo la poblacin fue muy adherente a las medidas y restricciones, la fragilidad econmica y social” hace que la poblacin evada “las restricciones a la movilidad”, explica Said.
Hay incluso voces que alertan de que en realidad es casi imposible, en la prctica, llegar a un nivel de covid que sea cero.
“Eliminar la covid de la faz de la Tierra sera grandioso, por supuesto, dadas las muertes y la destruccin que causa. Pero el nico problema es que la erradicacin solo ha sido lograda con un virus: la viruela, en 1980″, seala el corresponsal de Salud de la BBC, Nick Triggle.
Tres cuartas partes de las personas vacunadas viven en 10 pases ricos que suponen el 60% del PIB mundial en conjunto.
4. Distintos ritmos de vacunacin en los pases
La globalizacin alcanza muchas esferas de la vida moderna, y el coronavirus puso de manifiesto que la salud es una ms, al saltar en pocas semanas desde China al resto del mundo.
Tambin tiene su efecto en la estrategia de salida a la pandemia: tanto en la velocidad de vacunacin como en la transmisin del virus.
El director general de la OMS, Tedros Adhanom Gebreyesus se lo advirti recientemente a Gobiernos y farmacuticas: “A menos que eliminemos el virus en todas partes, podramos terminar en el punto de partida”.
Segn datos del organismo, tres cuartas partes de las personas vacunadas viven en 10 pases ricos que suponen el 60% del PIB mundial en conjunto.
Frente a ellos, otra realidad: 130 pases, donde viven 2.500 millones de personas, todava apenas han podido comenzar a vacunar.
“Todos los Gobiernos tienen la obligacin de defender a su propia gente, pero una vez que los pases han vacunado a sus propios trabajadores de la salud y a las personas mayores, la mejor manera de proteger al resto de su propia poblacin es compartir las vacunas para que otros pases puedan hacer lo mismo“, explic el dirigente de la OMS.
“Esto se debe a que cuanto ms tiempo se tarda en vacunar a las personas con mayor riesgo en todas partes, ms oportunidades le damos al virus de mutar y evadir las vacunas”, aadi.
Los expertos advierten, igualmente, de la importancia de mantener las medidas preventivas mientras las campaas de vacunacin estn en marcha para evitar la expansin de estas mutaciones.
Un ejemplo de ello es Brasil, donde varios especialistas alertan de que puede convertirse en una ”fbrica” de variantes potencialmente capaces de escapar a la eficacia de las vacunas por completo.
La relajacin de las medidas en el pas, ms la aparicin de la mutacin E484K, puede crear la combinacin perfecta para esta situacin de riesgo.
“Si hay una transmisin incontrolada del virus, es decir, en un entorno sin normas de distancia social, sin confinamiento ni uso de mascarillas, las personas susceptibles de contagiarse se mezclarn con las vacunadas”.
“Sin barreras, el virus puede transmitirse entre poblaciones, generando potencialmente variantes que escapen a la vacuna”, le explic Tang a BBC News Brasil.
Hay distintos ensayos para comprobar la efectividad de las vacunas del covid-19 en los nios, pero an no estn disponibles.
5. Los nios an no tienen vacuna
“Ahora mismo, el mundo se encuentra en una situacin en la que todava hay una transmisin muy amplia en muchos pases, es decir, an est fuera de control”, explica por su parte la experta de la OMS Katherine O’Brien en un informe de la organizacin.
“Por lo tanto, el tiempo que necesitemos para continuar con [las] precautions [contra el coronavirus] really depend on what communities and countries can do to really crush this virus, to stop transmission. And that way vaccines can better prevent disease, ”he says.
But there is not only the problem of economic inequality in accessing the vaccine, but generational inequality.
The vaccination process, at this time, will not reach all segments of the population.
There are no specific vaccines for children yet.
There are different trials going on – like those of the Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca vaccines – which attempt to verify whether current vaccines are effective and safe in children.
But they have just started and still have a way to go, according to announcements from each firm.
“So for now, these age groups will continue to be at risk for disease and infection and could pass it on to other people,” says O’Brien.
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