10 reasons why Argentina is starting a second lockdown today and the question of when it will end

Today, they are filled 402 days of pandemic in Argentina and history repeats itself. As this March 20, 2020, at the dawn of Friday April 9, a series of restrictions began to be implemented with which the government will try to reduce the cases of coronavirus.

As experience indicates, the problem is not so much when the “quarantine” begins, but when it ends. Especially if the measures fail. The danger is that the country, as in other facets, with the Covid is also a dog biting its tail.

Here, a review of the ten variables which led the Argentine ship, in the midst of the pandemic storm, to a new deserted island.

1- Many cases

The number of cases recorded in recent days is the main signal that triggered the alarms. Argentina begins to cross its third peak. The second happened in mid-January, although it was less intense than the other two.

The October peak reached an average of 14,823 infections In seven days, January reached 11.712 (It was considered more of a regrowth than a second wave) and the current one is currently at 14.464, but going up. Added to this is a total number of unpublished active cases: 227,646 as of Thursday. By the October high, that number had reached 174,368.

This is because the newly diagnosed cases of Covid they accumulate so fast who do not give time for the registrations of the recovered to do their job of delivery.

2- Lethality pending

More than by the curve that death draws in the present, it is feared by the one it could draw in the near future. The question is what will be the impact of lethality in this second wave of Covid. An “encouraging” fact is that the infections are occurring in a younger population than that of the first wave.

This target age difference should inevitably have an impact on the number of deaths. In 2020, 83 percent fatal cases of coronavirus have occurred in people over the age of 60.

Today, about a third of that older adult population has received one of the three coronavirus vaccines available in Argentina. It is not a guarantee of immunitybut it should at least cushion the impact.

3- Variants of Covid

The variant problem is directly related to the previous point and it is the variable that puts it greater uncertainty to the second wave of coronavirus. The British variant, according to information available to date, is up to 70% more contagious and circulates in the community in the country.

The British variant was also found to be more virulent, meaning that those infected more likely to require a hospital stay. In the same way, the Manaus variant has community circulation in Argentina and experts believe its effects could be devastating, as they once were in Brazil.

All of this means that the fact that the infected population today is younger no guarantee that the health care system, in any case, cannot be stressed and even collapsed, precisely because of the unforeseeable consequences that the recharged coronavirus brings.

4- Intensive therapy beds

Until now, with a few exceptions in some municipalities, intensive care beds they are not at the limit. But it is as for the dead: the second wave has only just begun and we do not yet know what its scope will be, what level the peak will reach.

If the number of occupied intensive care beds is observed up to the latest available data, 3,742 this Thursday, the country is far from having reached the levels of demand that it had manifested during the first wave of Covid, when it reached a peak of 5.037.

However, another piece of data complicates the plot: this year there are more intensive care beds occupied by other pathologies that are not Covid. From today, a system stress is reported but above all in the general hospitalization area and, in particular, in the private system. There is little availability to receive new patients.

5- Lack of tests

Argentina is in the 13th in the world in number of coronavirus cases. In this list, only two countries they tested less per million inhabitants than ours: Brazil and India. In South America, Colombia, Peru, Chile and Uruguay have tested more.

The government decided decentralize in this second wave the acquisition of tests in the provinces, which contributes a new quota of instability to this policy considered in the world key to controlling the pandemic. In other words, it is not enough to have people locked up if at the same time there is not an aggressive campaign of detection and isolation.

The increase in testing in recent days, which has resulted in an unprecedented number of cases, had more to do with a citizen request who go to hospitals and clinics with a logic of tracking and identification, so that infected people do not continue to circulate and spread.

6- Slow vaccination

Here, the shortage of vaccines in the world converges, which has an impact on the local supply, with the slowness in applying the vaccines which are already available. Although President Alberto Fernández has said Argentina could apply up to 150,000 doses per day if the country has them, this is not translated into practice. when the stock exists.

According to the Public Vaccination Monitor, the government has already distributed almost 6,609,996 vaccines, but they applied 4,879,656. One of the arguments for setting the new restrictions from this Friday on social life was to “stop vaccinating”. That is to say, win time.

However, this time could be optimized, as some provinces do: La Pampa and San Luis were practically up to date with their supplies. The national average does not indicate the same thing when we observe that only 72 percent doses received in the districts were applied.

7- unequal treatments

Not so far hegemonic treatment against the coronavirus. Some, deemed viable, were rejected last year and others are still in the testing and emergency clearance phase. Few of these trials have been successful.

One of these treatments is convalescent plasma, which with the second wave began to become scarce again due to the lack of donors. In this sense, there has not been any energetic action by the State, through public campaigns, to get volunteers. Plasma is one of the “remedies” that can prevent a patient from receiving intensive therapy.

The other treatment added this year is hyperimmune equine serum, which has also shown good results, but its use is still ongoing. uneven and delimited in the provinces, although approved by ANMAT in December.

8- More “infected” provinces

Contrary to what happened during the first wave, this time the Covid attacks more evenly from the start in much of the country. Cordoba, Santa Fe and Mendoza have very high levels of contagion, although the highest concentration occurs at AMBA.

Although the spirit of the new “quarantines” now available would be more surgical and concentrated, the current reality of the pandemic indicates that the virus is spreading in the main urban centers of the country.

One of the reasons for this 2021 Covid card is that the curve is never low enough And, therefore, the epidemiological process of 2020 could not be repeated, when the cases started in the federal capital and the outer suburbs, and then spread to the rest of Argentina.

9- Low social responsibility

messages contradictory state and a “natural” tendency of society to pull the rope as much as possible or to be allowed was another of the factors that led to the current situation, which has led to further restrictions for everyone.

In this regard, there is also no active and permanent public awareness campaign, with the aim of sustaining care over time: correct use of the chin strap, limited number of people able to enter a commercial premises. , better control of transport, among other key measures.

This easing led to even more serious situations, as were all kinds of popular rallies Yes massive parties, some illegal and others authorized.

10- Restrictions on restrictions

The lack of control over existing protocols has led the government to put more restrictions, that if they are not checked again, they will make the same authorities try to resort to greater restrictions, in a spiral uncertain end.

This new stage of social and trade restrictions also carries the burden of 2020, when the country went through one of the quarantines. longer of the world, without the government deciding to a reasonable limit when needed.

This “youthful” sin is what makes that, in this second phase of the pandemic, the social consensus on restrictions can weaken and, therefore, transforming a measure with high social and economic impact into ineffective health.

PS