Government assistance: how many people will reach the new bonus of $ 15,000 and how it will be paid

The announcement of Alberto Fernandez Regarding the payment of a new bonus of $ 15,000 for beneficiaries of the AUH and monotributists of the lowest categories, it has a much more limited scope than the Emergency Family Income (IFE) of 2020. The accounts adjusted Treasury, which before that decision walking in the direction of 4 points of GDP deficit for this year, they will be annoyed by the higher expenditure that the Treasury will have to incur now. But the official goal is to keep the numbers down: Analysts estimate it will cost around $ 25 billion, and there aren’t many other funding options for the extra expense other than the central bank monetary issue.

“We always take measures to support people and not leave them in the open. We know that many are going through difficult times, despite the fact that the economy has recovered well. What we’re going to have, and over the course of the day Fernanda Raverta, from ANSES, will give the details, is to allocate to each holder of the AUH, pregnancy allowances and monotributistas of the first categories, A and B, $ 15,000 for these 15 days which they have to face with greater restrictions. And all those affected by these measures will have access to it, ”the president revealed in statements to Radio 10.

In different national ministries, they tried to do accounts to estimate the universe reached. One interpretation is that the beneficiaries of this bond will be exclusively those who meet the required conditions and reside at the same time in the metropolitan area of ​​Buenos Aires (AMBA), which includes the city of Buenos Aires and Greater Buenos Aires. Another, more suited to “affected areas”, would also include other districts with similar closures to those announced. For example, Catamarca would fall into this category.

“We always take measures to accompany people and not leave them in the open” (Fernández)

The promise of the link, they feared in some agencies, could eventually convince a governor to accept Fernández’s invitation to other districts to join this new quarantine for the second wave.

Until the universe is specified, the exact numbers are not known to Economics, the Central Bank, or the Department of Social Development. What officials clearly know is where this money will come from given the lack of funding channels. If it cannot be financed by a debt placement, it will be financed by issuesay officials responsible for raising the pesos to cover the budget deficit.

Until Raverta discloses the fine print of the grant this afternoon he will make the announcement, the costs of this replacement to IFE (Emergency Family Income) will not be precise. In the private sector, however, some preliminary figures have been encouraged.

“It is much more limited than the IFE or the work and production assistance program. Extrapolating for AMBA, the cost is around $ 25,000 million ”(Furiase)

“It is much more limited than the IFE or the work and production assistance program. Extrapolating to AMBA, the cost is around $ 25,000 million, or 0.06% of GDP. This number assuming that it is a single payment and that it does not extend to more provinces ”, he calculated. APC Furiase EcoGo.

For comparison, each of the 3 IFE rounds last year cost the Treasury just under $ 90 billion.

“In principle, the deficit forecast for this year doesn’t change us much,” he said. Andres Borenstein by Econviews. “It’s going to be more interesting to see how the brake affects collection, especially in the provinces, because for example much less fuel will be sold which has a lot of taxes,” he added.

“It is a floor of 20,000 million dollars which, as it is specified, can be extended to 30,000 million dollars, remember what happened with the IFE, they are filtered a lot”, he agreed. Gabriel Caamano by Consultora Ledesma.

This afternoon, the Treasury comes out to place the debt in pesos precisely to try to limit the amount of pesos that will have to be issued this year. You have to renew about $ 85,000 million in installments and every peso you get above that number will be additional funding to top up the Central Bank’s peso printer. But the peso market is not, today, the most favorable for Treasury investments. During the last call for tenders in April, it was not even able to renew the deadlines, which forced a monetary injection from the Central in the last days of the month.

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